Like a magic spell from Glinda the Witch herself, the box office is finally bound for a rebound after an awful autumn with the arrival of Universal’s Wicked: For Good.
The second half of the feature take on the Broadway musical from Winnie Holzman and music/lyricist Stephen Schwartz is coming in hot, already Fandango’s biggest PG-rated advance ticket seller stateside, and the best pre-seller of 2025.
Sources tell us that global weekend forecast is around $200M+ with plenty of room for upside. Over $70 million is coming from 78 offshore markets and anywhere from $125M-$150M+ at 4,000 U.S./Canada theaters. The first Wicked, with a $112.5M domestic/$164M worldwide opening, set a record last year with the best start ever for a movie based on a Broadway musical, and Wicked: For Good will break that record.
Note that, on the domestic side, exhibition and rival distributors have crazy projections north of $175M million, but what’s hard to read on this heavily female-leaning property are the enormous presales. Last year at the domestic box office, on Wicked‘s opening day, it was figured that the picture would bow to $120M. That eased to $112.5M by Monday because business was frontloaded. People continued to flock to Wicked over the Thanksgiving frame, which combined with Moana 2 to drive a record Thanksgiving box office week of $420M. Wicked‘s $164M+ global debut also repped a record for a Broadway IP movie.
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An “A” CinemaScore legged Wicked out to 4.2x multiple at the domestic box office with $474.4M. International final was $284.2M — par for the course for a Broadway musical adaptation — for a grand global take of $758.7M. The film earned 10 Oscar nominations including Best Picture, and two wins for Production Design and Costumes.
Wicked: For Good currently stands at 74% fresh with critics and has a great audience score of 97% (there were Amazon sneaks); compare this to Wicked‘s 88% critics score and 95% audience score last year. There are large-format fan previews at 6 p.m. Wednesday, followed by Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m. stateside. The Amazon sneaks and Wednesday grosses will be rolled into Thursday. Wicked minted $19.2M in total U.S./Canada previews a year ago. Wicked: For Good will have Imax and premium large-format screens and will share those auditoriums with Disney’s Zootopia 2 when that animated title opens Wednesday over the Thanksgiving 5-day stretch.
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The Wicked: For Good posse of Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, Jonathan Bailey, etc., and filmmaker Jon M. Chu have been a global tour which kicked off November 4 in Sao Paolo, Brazil, followed by Paris (November 7), London (November 10), Singapore (November 13) and NYC on Monday night.
The Chu-directed movie is opening in more territories this time around than a year ago, which counted 61 and yielded an offshore start in like-for-likes, adjusted for inflation of $60.1M. Not included in this suite for Wicked: For Good is Japan (which is opening on March 6) and China. Wicked: For Good is cleared to play in the latter, but is still awaiting a date (Wicked only grossed $2M there a year ago). The top final offshore markets for Wicked were UK, Australia, Japan, Germany, and South Korea. Korea, Belgium, Phillipines and France are opening tomorrow.
A year ago at the domestic box office, there was Paramount with its guy-skewing, R-rated Gladiator II, which debuted to $55M and with Wicked helped drive an overall $202.4M weekend. There is hope that sans a Gladiator II-type movie this time around, Wicked: For Good will make up the difference. That remains to be seen.
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Mari Yamamoto and Brendan Fraser in ‘Rental Family‘
James Lisle/Searchlight Pictures
Also opening as older-adult counterprogramming is Searchlight’s Rental Family in 1,925 theaters. Starring Oscar winner Brendan Fraser as an actor in Tokyo who is hired as a stand-in family member and companion for strangers, the Hikari-directed movie made its debut at the Tokyo International Film Festival and then TIFF back in the fall and has 94% fresh with RT critics.
Sony Screen Gems has the Finnish WWII action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge in 2,100 locations. Both are expected to do in the single digits. Sisu 2 stands at 96% fresh with critics. The first movie from filmmaker Jalmari Helander followed an ex-soldier who discovers gold in the Lapland wilderness and tries to take the loot into the city as German soldiers led by a brutal SS officer battle him. Produced by Sony Worldwide Acquisitions and Stage 6 Films, the movie was released by Lionsgate in 1,006 theaters, opening to $3.3M and finaling at $7.2M domestic. Helander returns to write and direct Part 2, which centers on a man who returns to dismantle his family’s house, where they were murdered in war, to rebuild it elsewhere. When the killer, a Red Army commander, tracks him down, a brutal cross-country pursuit begins. Previews in North America start at 4 p.m. Thursday at 1,900 sites.
Lionsgate’s No. 1 movie from last weekend, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, hopes to have a second-weekend ease in the 50% range ($9M-$10M), still withstanding the crush from Wickek: For Good. Paramount’s second frame of Edgar Wright’s The Running Man will be harder, some believing it’s around -70%, or $5M.
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