There’s no way to seasonally candy-coat this: 2025 has been a grueling year for the film business. Between the wildfires in January and the WBD/Netflix/Paramount showdown in December, we’ve faced a wave of uncertainty over nearly all aspects of the industry. Widespread layoffs have occurred as the studios seek to shore up their balance sheets. Business and politics have become inextricably linked. Advances in AI create headlines on a daily basis, with studios variously suing over alleged copyright infringement, licensing content for training, charging forward with bold AI plans, then retreating when those proved oversold.
In turbulent times, we believe the kind of analysis we provide is more important than ever. This year in the Business Report, we’ve analyzed the challenges posed by changing theatrical windows, and looked at why feature film production has moved overseas, and what it would really take to bring it back, among many other things. This month, we look at what a Netflix takeover of Warner Bros. could cost movie theaters, depending on Netflix’s business priorities.
This potential deal has sparked significant industry concern, a major one being the potential impact on the theatrical industry. Historically, Netflix has positioned itself as a streaming-first company, primarily focused on digital distribution. Netflix has released films theatrically, typically in limited runs—24 of them in 2025, according to our data. However, details regarding their theater counts and box office revenues are not publicly disclosed.
In the Report, we look at what the deal might mean under four scenarios: a “business as usual” scenario, where we assume Netflix releases Warner Bros. in theaters exactly as they are today; a “shortened theatrical window” scenario, with Warner Bros. titles under Netflix continuing to receive theatrical releases, but with a shorter exclusive theatrical window; a “rush to streaming” scenario with a three-week theatrical exclusive window only; and, finally a “theatrical abandonment” scenario, where Netflix stops releasing movies in theaters almost entirely.
The Report estimates the costs to the theatrical business and Netflix in each scenario, and reveals which scenario makes the most sense to all parties.
Also in this edition…
We have our final pre-release predictions for all of January’s wide releases, including Greenland 2: Migration and Mercy (among many others), along with our full 2025 and 2026 predictions.
Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.
For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.
On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.
To take our prediction analysis further, alongside The Business Report, we are now publishing a six-week market theatrical forecast every week. That has day-by-day predictions for all movies in the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Subscribers also receive print and digital editions of the Report, and optional forecast spreadsheets and Bankability reports. Click here to subscribe.
Contact The Numbers Business Report team