AI data center risk for Pennsylvania GOP incumbents

The AI-driven data center boom in Pennsylvania — which includes a $20 billion investment from Amazon — is leading to political angst in districts in the Keystone State that could help decide control of the U.S. House.

The four competitive House races are in the eastern part of the state, where Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is focusing his data center expansion plans. Republicans represent all four districts and are looking to not only hold on to their own seats in November’s election but to retain control of the House, where the party holds a five-seat majority.

Political analysts say the data center dynamic could harm incumbents, who will take the brunt of public backlash for unpopular development.

All four districts are considered in play by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which rates every congressional race. The 7th, 8th and 10th Districts are all listed as “toss-ups” by the Cook Report. Cook rates the 1st District — in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia — as “likely Republican,” so it’s also considered to be in play. It’s represented by Brian Fitzpatrick and is set to see construction from Amazon’s infusion of cash.

Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania, said bipartisan backlash around data centers has further complicated an already difficult environment for Republicans in competitive districts.

“They’re really caught between counteracting forces,” he said. “A lot of these folks are in uncomfortable, challenging positions to begin with, and [the issue of] data centers has layered another challenge.”

Borick said a rise in data center opposition has created a tightrope for Republican incumbents to walk as they aim to balance President Donald Trump’s energy agenda and need to support AI growth with their constituents’ frustration with and opposition to the data center buildout. 

Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., whose 10th District win in 2024 had one of the closest margins in the country, said that while he’s engaged on national energy policy, he largely views data center regulation as out of his purview.

“At the end of the day, most of this stuff is … local issues for local municipalities,” he said. “As a federal guy, you know, I don’t get into local zoning and building and what municipalities choose or don’t choose. Those are local decisions.”

In the swing 7th and 8th Districts, Republican Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Rob Bresnahan, respectively, ousted incumbent Democrats in 2024.

Data centers are being built across the U.S., fanning out from concentrations in longtime hotspots such as northern Virginia’s “data center alley.” In Pennsylvania, Amazon, Microsoft and Blackstone-backed QTS are taking advantage of Shapiro’s existing energy infrastructure efforts and a supply of old industrial sites and farmland ripe for rezoning to transform the state into one of the country’s next big data center markets. Microsoft plans to use the energy generated by a reopened Three Mile Island nuclear reactor to power its data centers.

The novelty of the hyperscale data center buildout presents a unique set of circumstances for politicians to navigate, as data centers remain one of the few issues in a polarized political environment without positions specifically delineated along party lines. An unlikely coalition has been built in the data center opposition movement, with environmental groups coming together with populist Trump supporters.

Ginny Marcille-Kerslake, eastern Pennsylvania senior organizer for Food & Water Watch, a pro-environment group, said local opposition to data center projects in Pennsylvania’s swing districts is strong, with residents often united across party lines. The state already has more than 100 data centers.

“In my 10 years of organizing, I have never seen anything like this groundswell of opposition,” she said. “And especially in communities that find that they’re being targeted for a project.”

Rep. G.T. Thompson, a Republican who represents a safe seat in north-central Pennsylvania, said he’s noticed increased discussion about data centers in the state and that he sympathizes with voters’ concerns about the construction displacing farmers.

“There’s quite a discussion on it everywhere I go in Pennsylvania,” Thompson said. “It’s an evolution of technology that I think is here to stay. One of the controversial issues I hear about a lot and I agree with — I don’t really want these on prime farmland.”

“Energy-wise, I also don’t really want them on the grid,” he added.

Data center construction has already become a flashpoint across the country in the still-young primary election season. Opponents delayed or blocked 48 data center projects in 2025, affecting $156 billion in potential investment, according to a report released in April by Data Center Watch, a project of nonpartisan AI safety research firm 10a Labs.

In Maine, legislators on April 14 approved what could be the first statewide ban on data center construction. Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, would need to sign the measure for it to take effect. In Pennsylvania, lawmakers are mulling a three-year moratorium on “hyperscale” data centers, a term that is loosely defined but generally refers to data centers exceeding 5,000 servers and 10,000 square feet.

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District, historically a swing district and now represented by vulnerable freshman Republican Ryan Mackenzie, data center opposition is growing. In the Allentown suburb of South Whitehall Township, community members are scrutinizing Atlas Industrial Data Center, a six-building, 5-million-square-foot-plus data center complex set to be built across the street from a high school, prompting concern from local residents. 

Cheryl Lutz, a South Whitehall resident, told CNBC that after hearing stories of rising electricity prices, rolling blackouts and noise pollution that plague people living near data centers, she is worried about the impact a new data center might have on her home value.

“Would it make it impossible for me to sell my house?” Lutz said. 

Rising electricity rates stemming partially from data centers could spell trouble for the toss-up district Republicans as the politicians attempt to run on an affordability agenda against the backdrop of the Iran war.

Borick said the data center industry’s perceived ties to rising electricity costs have caused opposition to explode in size and political saliency.

“If you’re looking for a straw that stirred the drink, that was the straw,” Borick said.

Christopher Nicholas, a Republican political consultant in Pennsylvania, said Democratic challengers have seized on Republicans’ approach to data centers and sought to blame incumbents for the rising electricity prices attached to them.

“You are seeing candidates, especially challengers, try to attack incumbents over the increase in utility prices — specifically electricity. As if somehow an incumbent of either party is in charge of what a utility charges you for your electricity,” said Nicholas, who is president of Eagle Consulting Group.

Dan Diorio, vice president for state policy at the Data Center Coalition, a trade association, said the industry is committed to guardrails such as internalizing electricity costs and efficient water use.

Digital infrastructure “really is the backbone of the 21st century economy,” Diorio said. “It’s a key part of maintaining the United States’ global economic competitiveness. We need to keep pace with other countries that are building out both energy and digital infrastructure very rapidly.”

Americans’ electric bill rates went up by 21.7% in Pennsylvania and 8.3% nationwide in 2025, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which said it used data collected on retail sales revenues and volumes to calculate average retail revenues per kWh.

Nicholas said successful Republicans will sympathize with, rather than fight, their constituents’ energy affordability concerns.

“I think smart Republicans want to say that they too want lower or stable electricity prices, and they too want to see these data centers put in appropriate places. And I think that’ll be a good strategy for this year,” he added.

Still, as the affordability crunch continues and voters increasingly focus on cost-of-living concerns, incumbent politicians may feel increasingly pressured to take a stronger position on whether they support or oppose new data center construction.

“That pressure is mounting,” Borick said. “It’s starting to come more regularly, the demands for some kind of clear leadership. And again, they’ve been cautious, because it’s a difficult issue to navigate.”

“The challengers are at the advantage on this,” Borick said. “Because a lot of this is going to be, rightly or wrongly, laid at the feet of the incumbents.”

Lutz said that with data center construction on the horizon in many swing district voters’ backyards, politicians’ responses to the data center buildout will weigh on voters’ minds at the ballot box in a way they haven’t before. 

“If you’re going to run in November, it’s important to address what you’re going to do about data centers,” Lutz said. “It’s definitely going to be on everybody’s minds. So I think if they ignore it, it’s to their own peril.”

— CNBC’s Garrett Downs and Emily Wilkins contributed to this report.