Although SpaceX founder Elon Musk is known for outspokenness and controversial comments on his social media site X, he has been relatively restrained when it comes to US space policy in recent years.
For example, he has rarely criticized NASA or its overall goal to return humans to the moon through the Artemis program. Rather, Musk, who has long preferred Mars as a destination for humans, has more or less been a team player when it comes to the space agency’s lunar-focused plans.
This is understandable from a financial perspective, as SpaceX has contracts worth billions of dollars to not only build a Human Landing System as part of the Artemis program but also to supply food, cargo, and other logistics services to a planned Lunar Gateway in orbit around the moon.
But privately, Musk has been critical of NASA’s plans, suggesting that the Artemis Program has been moving too slowly and is too reliant on contractors who seek cost-plus government contracts and are less interested in delivering results.
Silent on Policy No Longer
During the past 10 days, Musk has begun airing some of these private thoughts publicly. On Christmas Day, for example, Musk wrote on X, “The Artemis architecture is extremely inefficient, as it is a jobs-maximizing program, not a results-maximizing program. Something entirely new is needed.”
Then, on Thursday evening, he added this: “No, we’re going straight to Mars. The moon is a distraction.”
These are definitive statements that directly contradict NASA’s plans to send a series of human missions to the lunar south pole later this decade and establish a sustainable base of operations there with the Artemis program.
It would be one thing if Musk was just expressing his opinion as a private citizen. But since playing a significant part in the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States last year, Musk has assumed an important advisory role for the incoming administration. He was also partly responsible for the expected nomination of private astronaut Jared Isaacman to become the next administrator of NASA. Although Musk is not directing US space policy, he certainly has a meaningful say in what happens.
So What Does This Mean for Artemis?
The fate of Artemis is an important question not just for NASA but for the US commercial space industry, the European Space Agency, and other international partners who have aligned with the return of humans to the moon. With Artemis, the United States is in competition with China to establish a meaningful presence on the surface of the moon.
Based upon conversations with people involved in developing space policy for the Trump administration, I can make some educated guesses about how to interpret Musk’s comments. None of these people, for example, would disagree with Musk’s assertion that “the Artemis architecture is extremely inefficient” and that some changes are warranted.
With that said, the Artemis program is probably not going away. After all, it was the first Trump administration that created the program about five years ago. However, it may be less well-remembered that the first Trump White House pushed for more significant changes, including a “major course correction” at NASA.
“I call on NASA to adopt new policies and embrace a new mindset,” then-vice president Mike Pence said in May 2019. “If our current contractors can’t meet this objective, then we’ll find ones that will.” (Speaking of the vice president, it’s unlikely that the National Space Council will be reconstituted under JD Vance).