Well, it’s finally here: the last big opening of 2025. This morning, 20th Century Studios’ James Cameron directed threequel Avatar: Fire and Ash arrived on tracking three weekends ahead of its Dec. 19 opening and it’s looking pretty good with a $110M debut or $100M-$130M range.
You don’t get to those numbers unless it’s a four-quad movie, and Avatar: Fire and Ash is strong with men and women in first choice (mostly men, but also solid enough with women). Note, it’s behind the first tracking first choice numbers of Avatar: Way of Water, which opened to $134.1M, and that’s just fine. Note, unlike most Marvel Studios movies, Avatar movies are appointment viewing. Audiences seek out the best 3D, Imax and premium large format seats. There’s no Easter Eggs going on ala a Marvel movie which require an immediate rush-out by fans.
Avatar: Way of Water‘s tracking indicated a $150M-$175M opening three years ago, but the sequel came in below that. What went wrong? Tracking was working off the gas and comparison to Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: No Way Home the holiday season prior which posted the second biggest domestic opening ever at $260.1M behind Avengers: Endgame ($357.1M). Note, for Avatar: Way of Water to come out and open to $134M, 13 years after the original movie’s $77M opening — well, that was fantastic. Nothing to ding. When we’re talking about the opening for Avatar: Fire and Ash, consider, Avatar: Way of Water‘s domestic start essentially the ceiling in regards to a first weekend comp.
Avatar: The Way of Water did a 5x multiple off its domestic opening for a final of $688.4M in U.S./Canada. And that’s with a badass winter storm during its second weekend. Worldwide it was $2.34 billion, the third highest grossing movie ever.
During the press tour of Avatar: Way of Water earlier this fall, Cameron said he’s not committing to a fourth Avatar movie, despite having footage in the can, until the success of the third movie is determined; that’s because these movies cost a ton. Avatar: Way of Water was the most profitable Hollywood movie of 2022 earning well over half billion in the black.
The original Avatar did a crazy 10x multiple off its $77M U.S./Canada opening for a final of $785.2M. The combined franchise total from Avatar over two movies is $5.26 billion. Cameron owns the first (Avatar at $2.92 billion), third (Avatar: Way of Water) and fourth (Titanic at $2.26 billion) highest grossing movies of all-time at the global box office; a feat no other filmmaker can boast in the top ten movies of all-time.
The current 2025 domestic box office for the period of Jan. 1-through Sunday, Nov. 23 stands at $7.48 billion, +3% over the same frame in 2024. The Thanksgiving harvest of Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good will only propel business higher.
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