SATURDAY AM: Warner Bros hasn’t sent out numbers yet, but we’re hearing that New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites is heading for a far bigger weekend than anticipated now to be around $75M plus or minus after an estimated $34.6M Friday, which includes previews. Whether Conjuring scares up to $80M or eases back into the low $70M comes down to Saturday, rival estimates seeing a -20% to -24% hold versus that Friday/previews figure.
We already told you that’s easily an opening record for a Conjuring movie and the best start for a horror movie this year. Talk about great vibes. We thought we’d begin September on an OK note, and here we have the box office overperforming. CinemaScore is a B, which is higher than the Nuns C-range scores, and on the lower-end of the Conjuring core canon films (1 & 2 received A- while The Devil Made Me Do It received a B+). Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak definite recommend is still solid at 58%. Huge female and Hispanic and Latino turnout respectively at 51% and 43%. Best markets for movie are West, South Central and Midwest. AMC Burbank is the nation’s top grossing cinema at $85K.
Warners has all divine powers of PLFs and Imax which are driving a huge 40%.
Joan Marcus
If there’s a motif this weekend, it’s how IP which was sidelined to streaming during the pandemic is now booming in its full-bodied theatrical release, not just Conjuring (Devil Made Me Do It on HBO Max/theaters in 2021), but also Disney’s Hamilton this weekend which is estimated to be around $9M-$10M in second ahead of mid-single digit forecasts. Friday + previews is just under $4M. You’ll remember that filmed version of the Tony winning Lin-Manuel Miranda stage musical dropped on Disney+ in the 2020 summer of Covid (which the studio took off the table for $75M) to reported great traffic and an ultimate 2 Emmy wins. For a movie that’s been on Disney+ for some time to go and make a handful of cash, va bene, however, it makes one wonder how high the box office would truly be if Hamilton skipped the studio’s OTT service. However, it does show there’s a potential future appetite for a real cinematic live-action version of Hamilton.
PLFs at a low number repping 6% of ticket sales with best plays in the East, South and Midwest. Disney’s El Capitain in Hollywood is the top grossing venue with around $30K so far.
Also opening this weekend is Roadside Attractions’ pick-up of Republic Pictures Sundance opening night title Twinless starring Dylan O’Brien and directed by and starring James Sweeny. Booked at 567 theaters, the pic is seeing a 3-day of $411K after a $174K estimated Friday. CinemaScore is a solid A.
Overall weekend for all films is estimated to be around $117.5M, -20% from a year ago when Warner Bros’ Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice fueled a $147.5M marketplace
We’ll have more updates as they come as we’re in Toronto.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Blowing away all $40M+ tracking projections, New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites is heading for a franchise-record opening of $65M after a $30M Friday, including Thursday night’s previews. The Safran Company and Atomic Monster production could even be higher in its 3-day, but again, Saturday is the razor’s edge when it comes to a hold or a plummet on horror.
The previous record opening in the Conjuring universe belonged to 2018’s The Nun ($53.8M).
If Last Rites‘ estimates hold, it would rep the fifth-best opening for September after 2017’s It ($123M), last year’s Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($111M), 2019’s It: Chapter Two ($91M) and 2021’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings ($75.3M).
In addition, Last Rites is bound for the best opening for a horror pic YTD and a Warner Bros and/or New Line horror title, taking out Final Destination Bloodlines with $51M in May.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE, after Thursday exclusive: New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites is coming in at $8.5M, which is a preview record for a Conjuring movie, besting The Nun‘s $5.4M in 2018. It’s also the best preview result for a Warner Bros and New Line horror pic year to date. At this point, a $50M+ weekend seems doable, but it’s best not to get over your skis with horror since we all know such films are frontloaded.
Thursday night’s audience in ComScore/Screen Engine exits enjoyed the movie with a 60% definite recommend, which is enough word of mouth to propel this Michael Chaves-directed movie through the weekend. It’s 51% to 49% male-to-female split, and the 18-34 demo made up 69% of the preview crowd. Best grades came from 13- to 17-year-olds at 92% and the 45-54 demo, who gave the film 90%. Latino and Hispanic audience was huge Thursday night at 44%, followed by 28% Caucasian, 14% Black and 8% Asian American.
Disney’s Hamilton grossed $850K. The theatrical release of the filmed version of the Broadway musical is expected to do around $7M. The multi-Tony-winning Broadway musical turns 10 this year. Comps include last weekend’s Jaws 50th Anniversary, which minted $950K previews before opening to $8.2M over three days. There’s also the 2023 release of Titanic 25th Anniversary, which had $650K in previews for a $6.7M 3-day.
EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros can get down on its knees and thank the Almighty, for alas, the studio has its seventh No. 1 opener of 2025 this weekend in New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites. And get this: It’s Warners’ fourth straight No. 1 opening for a horror film. We’re hearing from sources that Thursday night’s previews, which kicked off at 3 p.m., are heading for a saintly $7 million-$8 million. That’s easily bound to be a preview record for a Conjuring franchise movie (read on), and definitely puts the Michael Chaves-directed R-rated movie from Safran Company and Atomic Monster deep into the $40M-plus Friday-Monday range.
We’ll have more for you on Friday AM, but Conjuring: Last Rites previews are bigger than Sinnners ($4.7M), Final Destination Bloodlines ($5.5M), Weapons ($5.7M) and even The Nun ($5.4M); Chaves previously directed The Nun II ($3.1M). Of these, Final Destination Bloodlines and The Nun opened to north of $50M, the latter owning the biggest domestic opening in The Conjuring franchise at $53.8M. All in, the Conjuring universe including the core films and Nun and Annabelle spinoffs counts $2.3 billion at global box office, the highest-grossing horror franchise ever.
No Rotten Tomatoes audience score yet, but critics aren’t thankful for Last Rites giving it a 58% Rotten, which is not far from the previous Lorraine and Ed Warren paranormal installment, 2021’s The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, at 56%. That sequel’s grosses were siphoned from a theatrical day-and-date release on HBO Max, when Warners was employing project popcorn during a time when cinemas were recovering and reopening from Covid. Devil Made Me Do It bowed to $24.1M domestic and ended its run at $65.6M stateside, $206M worldwide.
Back in May, Warner Bros opened New Line’s Final Destination Bloodlines to a franchise domestic record of $51.6M, the movie becoming the top-grossing one in that horror series with north of $138M stateside and $301M worldwide.