If Disney and Marvel Studios’ Thunderbolts* doesn’t kick off summer with a projected $70 million start, then don’t worry, the studio’s live-action Lilo & Stitch and Paramount/Skydance’s finale Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning will absolutely get the job done when they hit theaters over Memorial Day weekend.
Six weekend-in-advance tracking has hit for both movies on Quorum, with Lilo & Stitch eyeing a $100M+ 3-day opening and M:I 8 eyeing a record 3-day for the franchise, well north of 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout‘s $61M.
Remember how sucky last year’s Memorial Day weekend was at the box office with Furiosa and Garfield leading a $132.2M weekend? Well, none of that is bound to happen here, knock on wood.
Everyone bristles when Quorum releases its super early forecasts: The tracking firm was spot on weeks in advance for the openings of Deadpool & Wolverine, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mickey 17 and Captain America: Brave New World among others; however, on some family titles like Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3, it was a miss far in advance.
There’s always an asterisk on any projection at this early point since a pic’s campaign hasn’t fully kicked in. As we saw with A Minecraft Movie last weekend, the buzz that the movie could far and away exceed its early-week $65M projection didn’t occur until the Thursday before its opening as Warner Bros and Legendary doubled down on a social media and digital push. Studios in the social media era always significantly backload their campaign pushes.
However, get a load of Quorum’s data: Overall total awareness for Lilo & Stitch (62) and M:I-8 (59) outstrip that of Thunderbolts* (37). Among those who’ll watch these movies in theater versus home, both Lilo and M:I 8 at 50 apiece are ahead of the MCU movie about ragtag heroes at 42. The 3-day projection makes sense for Lilo & Stitch since it’s Disney’s second most-viewed live-action trailer at 158M. Note, that the buzz for M:I-8 will amplify after its London world premiere and Out of Competition screening at the Cannes Film Festival next month.
Separately, we hear Thunderbolts* advance ticket sales are ahead of Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.3M) at the same point in time.
Post Covid, the best Memorial Day weekend for all titles was in 2022 with $223.7M from Friday to Monday. That’s when Top Gun: Maverick yielded Tom Cruise’s best opening ever at a $126.7M 3-day/$160.5M 4-day. The record haul for the Memorial Day holiday was 2013, when all movies totaled $314.2M per Box Office Mojo on a weekend led by Fast & Furious 6 ($117M) and The Hangover Part III ($50.2M).