In the wake of one of the best pre-Thanksgiving frames in over a decade with Wicked and Gladiator II drumming up a $200M-plus frame, crowded lobbies around the world will remain intact this week as Disney’s Moana 2 joins the fray with what’s expected to be a $225M+ largely day-and-date global opening.
That’s just below the $295M that Disney’s own Inside Out 2 drummed up earlier this year; that Pixar pic remaining the top animated movie of all time and the best 2024 has seen thus far at $652.9M domestic, and $1.69 billion (you can read the screenplay here). Folks like AMC circuit boss Adam Aron believe Moana 2 could top that.
Moana 2 starts stateside previews at 2 p.m. Tuesday and rolls out abroad on Wednesday, looking to make $100M+ overseas and anywhere from $125M-$135M over its five day-domestic Thanksgiving Day stretch at 4,100 locations. It’s going for a record this weekend, looking to upset not just Disney’s previous $93.5M 5-day record opening for 2013’s Frozen but also the $125M 5-day Thanksgiving haul of 2019’s Frozen II. Presales, we’re told, are ahead of Frozen 2 and The Super Mario Bros Movie ($204.6M 5-day opening).
‘Wicked’
Universal Pictures
Moana 2 has all the women, so what happens to Universal’s Wicked in its second go-round? Jon M. Chu’s feature take on the Broadway hit might hit a buzzsaw, but that remains to be seen with a $90M+ 5-day (final 3-day came in at $112.5M). What Moana 2 has that Wicked ain’t got is a shorter running time of 100 minutes versus the latter’s 2 hours, 40 minutes — a much easier toleration of time for parents with kids. In addition, thanks to Dwayne Johnson’s Maui, there’s a character on-screen to keep boys entertained as opposed to the Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande singing-apalooza.
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There’s a grab for Imax and PLF screens, and they’ll be continued to shared among the three big movies. I understand that Moana 2 will have 300 Imax screens, resulting in two to three showtimes a day, while the Auli’i Cravalho-starring animation sequel will be booked at 700 PLF screens with 2,200 sites featuring 3D. Reviews haven’t registered on Rotten Tomatoes for the follow-up to the two-time Oscar-nominated 2016 original, which grossed $643.3M worldwide. While premieres were held in Maui and London last week, the larger media gets to see Moana 2 for the first time tonight. The original Moana opened to $56.6M 3-day and $82M 5-day. The Moana 2 team are currently do a press tour in Italy.
Moana 2 was announced by Disney CEO Bob Iger during an earnings call in February, with the studio switching up a planned Disney+ Moana series to a feature sequel to fill its Thanksgiving vacancy this year. The news of the sequel pushed the in-the-works live-action Moana starring Johnson to July 10, 2026.
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Moana 2 surfs into France, Korea and Italy on Wednesday. On Thursday, she will add Germany, Mexico, Australia and Brazil to the wave, with Friday bringing the UK, Spain and China into the mix. This will rep 94% of the international footprint as Japan goes a week later, on December 6.
The first Moana, which was on a staggered overseas release pattern back in 2016, did $64.7M abroad in like-for-like markets at today’s rates. It was original IP at the time but since has gained huge awareness through ancillary and on Disney+.
In terms of opening overseas comps, we’re looking at such titles in like-for-like markets and at current rates as Finding Dory ($107M, 2016), Incredibles 2 ($129M, 2018) and Despicable Me 4 ($135M, 2024). Note that each of those was a summer release.
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A few weeks ago, we were in a sort of wonky international marketplace, but the recent plays of Gladiator II and Wicked have provided gas to help fuel the rest of the year. Note that Wicked has no new offshore openings this coming week; it releases in France, China and Germany in December, and Japan in March next year.
The first Moana did its ultimate best numbers in Japan, France, China, UK and Brazil.
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Paul Mescal in ‘Gladiator II’
Paramount
Gladiator II will remain the one destination for men for quite some time. The Thanksgiving 5-day is figured around $45M. The Ridley Scott-directed movie star Paul Mescal finaled its 3-day opening at $55M after a $13.6M Sunday, -29% from Saturday. Given the long running times of Gladiator II at 2½ hours and Wicked, the hope is that scheduled trips to the cinema continue into this weekend, as such is the nature of these long-running titles a la Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.