A splash of auteurish openings on Christmas Day, with Focus Features’ Nosferatu, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown, A24’s naughty Babygirl and Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside, is poised to send the holiday week’s box office to a potential $280 million tally. That puts it on par with last year’s holiday week that was boosted by Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, Wonka, Migration and The Color Purple.
Christmas week 2021 holds the post-Covid record for the most made by movies with $292.4M during that time, a majority of that from Sony/Marvel Studios’ Spider-Man: No Way Home.
Still, it’s interesting. Even though there isn’t a massive, oxygen-sucking tentpole in the marketplace, the heavy supply of family titles in Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Mufasa, Wicked and Moana 2. plus the new offerings, are making for a lucrative season. Comscore projects we’ll end 2024 at $8.75 billion, just 3% shy of 2023’s $9 billion tally. Nothing to complain about especially in a domestic box office year that was still rattled by the aftermath of the previous year’s dual Hollywood strikes. We went from a domestic marketplace that was dogging 2023 by 20% before summer to just being a few points behind.
While Christmas Eve business Tuesday can ease anywhere from 20%-40% off Monday’s $30.7M total for all films, Christmas Day’s daily box office can surge well over 100%.
(L-R) ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ and ‘Sonic the Hedgehog 3’
Everett Collection
Paramount’s Sonic 3 will remain the alpha male gorilla at the box office over Disney’s Mufasa with a $50M+ 5-day, compared to the Lion King prequel’s $40M+ 5-day. Thanksgiving’s female-skewing holdovers, Universal’s Wicked and Disney’s Moana 2, are eyeing $20M+ apiece over the Wednesday-to-Sunday frame. As we mentioned, Wicked at some point this week will become the sixth Universal movie ever at the domestic box office to pass the $400M mark.
Three of the holiday adult offerings are R-rated; Amazon MGM Studios’ The Fire Inside being the sole PG-13 release.
‘Nosferatu’
Focus Features
Focus Features’ Robert Eggers gothic vampire movie Nosferatu is expected to deliver $25M over the Christmas 5-day frame at 2,600 theaters. That’s bound to be the director’s best opening of all time, ahead of the first 5-day take of his previous Focus movie, the Viking epic The Northman, which did $14.6M. His latest cost under $50M before P&A. The Northman pulled in 61% 18-34s and 68% men. Expect a similar turnout here for the horror movie starring Lily-Rose Depp, Nicholas Hoult, Bill Skarsgård and Aaron Taylor-Johnson. There are a limited number of Imax and 35MM runs starting today. Rotten Tomatoes reviews are at 87% certified fresh.
‘A Complete Unknown’
Searchlight
Searchlight’s $60M-$70M James Mangold-directed Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown starring Timothée Chalamet, Edward Norton, Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro is eyeing $15M+ over five days with great potential for upside at 2,500 theaters. Previews start at 2 p.m. today.
Mangold’s Johnny and June Carter Cash biopic Walk the Line opened in the pre-Thanksgiving period in 2005 to $22.3M. It would be great to see an adult drama such as this to break out at the box office at a time when audiences are hooked on streaming. Keep in mind that Dylan, despite his legendary status, can be niche compared with out music icons at the cinema, e.g., Elvis ($31.2M opening) and Elton John (Rocketman bowed to $25.7M in May 2019). The previous movie about Dylan was the absurdist 2007 Todd Haynes-directed I’m Not There, which featured several actors (Christian Bale, Heath Ledger, Cate Blanchett) playing the folk crooner. That Weinstein Co. arthouse release only made $4M over its total U.S.-Canada run. A Complete Unknown is aimed at a much broader audience. RT reviews are at 78% certified fresh.
‘Babygirl’
A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
For those looking for a mind-blowing date film, or for those who haven’t had their fill of mistletoe, there’s the Fifty Shades of Grey-like Babygirl from Halina Reijn at 2,100 theaters with an eye at $7M over five days. Why is it here? There’s always room at Christmas for an edgy movie, i.e. A24’s Uncut Gems which did $9.5M in its Christmas wide break at 2,348 theaters. Babygirl stars Nicole Kidman as a high-powered CEO who has an affair with a lower subordinate played by Harris Dickinson. Let’s just leave it at that. Let’s not even get into the whole dish of milk. No previews today. Critics enjoyed the movie at 81% certified fresh.
Last year, A24 had the tragedy-themed wrestling movie The Iron Claw, which did $8.5M in its first five days at the box office.
Ryan Destiny in ‘The Fire Inside’
Amazon MGM Studios
Barry Jenkins has another movie this weekend aside from Mufasa, and that’s The Fire Inside, which he wrote. Morrison, who was the Oscar-nominated DP on Mudbound as well as on Black Panther, directed this inspirational true story of female boxer Claressa Shields (Ryan Destiny). The high school junior from Flint, MI, is helped by her tough-love coach, Jason Crutchfield (Brian Tyree Henry), to become the first American woman to win an Olympic gold medal in boxing.
Booked at 2000 theaters, the sports movie is looking at mid-single digits over the Wednesday-Sunday span. Previews start today at 2 p.m.