SATURDAY AM: 20th Century Studios’ Send Help is looking to come in higher than Markiplier’s Iron Lung for the weekend, the Sam Raimi-directed movie expected to move ahead of the YouTuber’s videogame IP movie, $17.5M-$18.1M versus $15M-$17M. Still, that’s pretty amazing for the under $3M Iron Lung in regards to getting butts in seats particularly with the movie in competition with the Disney marketing machine. Send Help gets a B+ CinemaScore, which again for genre movies, is exceptional on that audience pollster’s scale. No CinemaScore for Iron Lung but on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak it’s 4 stars with a very good 65% definite recommend from its audience.
While Iron Lung is expected to fall hard on Sunday by as much as -40% from its Saturday take, what could help it is if Amazon MGM Studios’ documentary Melania steals more women away from Send Help.
Amazon MGM Studios
Now, Melania is still seeing $8.1M, but the exit scores are quite royal with an A CinemaScore, 5 stars on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak, and get this — an 89% definite recommend; unheard for any movie. If a movie is in the 70 percentile range, that’s outstanding. While a figure like that indicates a stampede for a tentpole, it’s interesting to see whether this documentary can overperform even more than it already is, especially off its older crowd. The turnout here for the Brett Ratner-directed nonfiction film is akin to that of a faith-based movie: 72% women, with 72% over 55. Audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is 99% while critics have bashed the movie at 6%. Melania is playing best in the South (12% over the norm) and South Central with the Cinemark Palace 21 in Boca Raton, FL the pic’s current highest grossing location with over $10K. Pic’s top grossing markets are Dallas, Orlando, Tampa, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, West Palm Beach, Fort Myers, Miami, Minnesota, Nashville, Jackson, MI; St. Louis, Las Vegas, Cleveland — the list goes on…no NYC or LA in this bunch. Diversity demos on this one is 74% Caucasian, 11% Latino and Hispanic, 4% Black, 4% Asian American and 7% Native American/other.
In PostTrak exits for Melania, 49% identified as Republicans, 47% said they were politically conservative, Evangelical Christians made up 28% of those attending while Democrats repped 2% of the audience.
Walk-up business is sold with 52% of the audience buying their tickets to Melania same day versus say Iron Lung which was 38% (many always believed the Markiplier movie would be frontloaded). Don’t say linear is dead: For the Melania crowd, 22% said that TV ads were the most influential form of advertisement, but they also cited social media as being a big influencer at 23%.
Interesting to note that among the streaming subscribers attending Melania this weekend, 54% were Prime Members, 53% Netflix, 24% Apple TV and 22% a piece for Hulu and Disney+ subs.
Charli xcx in ‘The Moment’
Sundance Institute
On the arthouse level, we have A24’s Charli xcx mockumentary The Moment popping big with the third best opening per screen average post Covid of $105,7K behind A24’s own Marty Supreme ($145,8K) and Focus Features’ Asteroid City ($142K). Outlook for the Aidan Zimiri-directed movie is $423K for the weekend after a beefy play at NYC’s Angelika and AMC Lincoln Square, and LA’s AMC Burbank and Grove. Friday was $199K alone.
Two genre movies up against each other—Iron Lung and Send Help—what’s the difference aside from the Markiplier vs. Disney Goliath? Iron Lung skews much younger with 62% of its audience under 25 versus Send Help‘s 22%. Men under 25 are leading for Iron Lung at 38% while they are trailing for Send Help at 10%. Women under 25 are also bigger for Iron Lung over Send Help, 24% to 12%. Send Help has 43% men over 25 (vs Iron Lung‘s 23%), women over 25 at 35% (vs. Iron Lung‘s 15%).
Diversity demos on Send Help are 52% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 15% Black, 7% Asian American and 5% Native American/other. PLFs and 4DX are repping 40% of the Dylan O’Brien and Rachel McAdams’ title’s business with 3D accounting for 5%. Pic’s best play is in the West and South Central with AMC Burbank in LA the best grossing multiplex with $32K.
Iron Lung has some PLFs contributing to its coffers at 7% with the pic playing best in the South, Midwest, and Mountain regions. The TCL Chinese Theatre (CA) is currently the movie’s top-grossing venue at $37K. Diversity demographics are 57% Caucasian, 23% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Asian American, 5% Black, and 5% Native American/other.
Coming up way short, by the way, is Black Bear’s second theatrical release, Shelter with $5M in 6th place after a $1.5M Friday/previews. Not the lowest for Jason Statham post-Covid, but close after Lionsgate’s Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre with a $3.1M opening which turned into a $6.5M final domestic, but did over $42M abroad. The movie gets a B+ CinemaScore, just like Operation Fortune and it cost $50M ala that pic with foreign sales offsetting exposure. Statham does well in the digital aftermarket, so a possible saving grace. With critics Shelter did a little bit better than Operation Fortune, 64% fresh to 51% Rotten. Circuits need more product and more distributors like Black Bear. Clearly, the frosh U.S. operation is still finding its footing.
Shelter has an audience over 45 of 44%. Some PLFs but nothing that’s making an impact. Any areas of play for the Statham movie were in the West, South Central and South with AMC Porter Ranch north of LA (where they shot the Nicole Kidman commercial) leads the way with a near $5K. Diversity demos were 48% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, 9% Asian American and 9% Native American/other.
Right now, the weekend is factored around $83M for all movies, which is off by -4% from last January’s finale.
Saturday numbers:
- Send Help (20th) 3,475 theaters Fri $7.2M, 3-day $17.5M-$18.5M/Wk 1
- Iron Lung (Inde) 3,015 theaters, Fri $9M, 3-day $15M-$17M/Wk 1
- Melania (AMZ) 1,778 theaters, Fri $2.9M, 3-day $8.1M/Wk 1
- Zootopia 2 (Dis) 2,880 (-50) theaters, Fri $1.3M (-7% from last Friday), 3-day $5.8M (+9%), Total $408.9M/Wk 10
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th) 2,800 (-350) theaters, Fri $1.2M (-28%) 3-day $5.05M (-21%) Total $385.6M/Wk 7
- Shelter (Black Bear) 2,726 theaters, Fri $1.9M, 3-day $5M/Wk 1
- Mercy (AMZ) 3,468 theaters, Fri $1.3M (-74%) 3-day $4.9M (-54%), Total $19.6M/Wk 2
- The Housemaid (LG) 2,603 (-404) theaters, Fri $1M (-32%), 3-day $3.35M (-15%), Total $120.5M/Wk 7
- Marty Supreme (A24) 1,703 (-318) theaters, Fri $752K (-32%), Wk $2.4M (-16%), Total $90.4M/Wk 7
- 28 Years Later: Bone Temple (Sony) 2,042 (-1464) theaters, Fri $450K (-62%) 3-day $1.6M (-53%), Total $23.6M/Wk 3
- Hamnet (Foc) 1,259 (-737) theaters, Fri $360K (-39%), 3-day $1.3M (-30%), Total $20M/Wk 10
Notable:
Paris Hilton Infinite Icon (CJ4DX/Western) 677 theaters, Fri $200K, 3-day $500K/PSA $739/Wk 1
The Moment (A24) 4 theaters, Fri $199K, 3-day $423K, PSA $105,7K/Wk 1
UPDATED, Friday PM: What an intriguing, potentially low weekend at the box office. Even though this weekend could come in lower than last year’s January finale/February intro frame (which was $86.1 million, per Box Office Mojo), there’s some stunning things going on in regards to the novelty fare on offer.
Here we have a YouTuber’s genre movie, Iron Lung, with very little P&A, that could possibly upset Disney/20th Century Studios’ Dylan O’Brien-Rachel McAdams big studio spend movie Send Help for No. 1. Estimates right now have Send Help between $16M-$18M, and Iron Lung doing anywhere between $14M-$17M at 3,015 theaters. The question is how fan-frontloaded Iron Lung is. Currently, Send Help is showing hourly growth, with Iron Lung presales beefing up today (combined previews and Friday are around $9M+). Send Help‘s Friday and previews are around $7M+.
RELATED: YouTube Star Markiplier’s ‘Iron Lung’ Hopes To Soak Up A Ton Of Oxygen At January Box Office
Coming in at third is Amazon MGM Studios’ Brett Ratner-directed documentary Melania, which is eyeing $2.85M today (no previews) for an $8M opening in third place — that result would mark the best start for a docu in the last decade (beating Angel Studios’ 2023 doc After Death, which opened to $5M and finaled at $11.5M stateside). I’m hearing sales are gaining, with Florida and Texas quite large, for the First Lady’s big-screen debut.
EntTelligence showed Melania presales overindexing in rural areas with populations under 500,000. Again, license fees plus marketing on this pic equals $75M, but Amazon can afford it, even though those figures don’t make sense for a traditional motion picture studio’s P&L. Are MAGA groups driving sales? Maybe, but that will be sussed out as the weekend goes on. Know this: This isn’t an Angel Studios release fueled by some semblance of fan sales or an Amazon Prime super-ticket.
RELATED: At ‘Melania’ Premiere, Brett Ratner And The First Lady Defend Cost Of Amazon MGM Documentary
Elsewhere this frame, Disney’s 10th weekend of Zootopia 2 is eyeing $6M, while Avatar: Fire and Ash and Amazon MGM Studios’ Mercy are about $5M apiece. Mercy is down 54% with a 10-day cume by Sunday of $19.2M. Avatar 3 will be down 22% for a running cume of $385.6M by the end of its seventh weekend. Zootopia 2 is expected to hit $409.1M by Sunday.
Black Bear’s Jason Statham action movie Shelter is falling outside the top 5 with around $4M for the weekend after an estimated $1.5M Friday (that includes previews).
In terms of marketshare of showtimes, The Box Office Company reports that 13% are comprised of Send Help, 10% for Amazon MGM Studios’ Mercy, 9% for Iron Lung, 8% for Shelter, 7% for Zootopia 2, and 6% for Melania.
PREVIOUSLY, Friday AM: Markiplier’s self-financed feature take on the video game Iron Lung broke out with $3.5 million in previews on Thursday night, we’re told. Meanwhile, Sam Raimi’s genre pic Send Help from 20th Century Studios saw $2.2M.
Iron Lung went into the weekend with $6M in presales and is expected to do around $9M-$10M. We hear that the movie cost under $3M and its P&A was bare-bones, with an Instagram post from the YouTuber and a one-sheet printed for its North American debut. Iron Lung held previews Tuesday and Wednesday.
Send Help‘s previews are in line with 2023’s Evil Dead Rise ($2.5M previews, $24.5M opening) and last year’s The Amateur ($2M, $14.8M opening), and higher than M. Night Shyamalan’s A Knock at the Cabin ($1.5M, $14.1M opening in 2023). Send Help‘s numbers include sneaks from last weekend.
Meanwhile, Amazon MGM Studios’ Melania documentary from Brett Ratner didn’t hold previews. Showtimes start today following Thursday night’s premiere in Washington D.C. The movie follows the 20 days before Donald Trump’s 2025 presidential inauguration.
RELATED: Amazon & Friends Roll Out International Red Carpet For ‘Melania’ Doc But Does Anyone Want To See It?
On Thursday, Black Bear’s second theatrical release, Shelter, took in $385,000 from 2,000 theaters. Outlook for the Jason Statham movie is around $5M+.
There’s news of another snowstorm brewing in the Mid-Atlantic U.S., but we understand it’s not going to throw ticket sales off this weekend a la last weekend. In addition, we’re not hearing about circuits closing due to Friday’s anti-ICE national protest.
Below is the Top 5 box office chart for the week:
1. Mercy (AMZ) 3,468 theaters, Wk $14.6M/Wk 1
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th) 3,150 theaters, Wk $9.1M (-57%)/Total $380.1M/Wk 6
3. Zootopia 2 (Dis) 2,930 Wk $7.4M (-49%)/Total $403.1M/Wk 9
4. The Housemaid (LG) 3,007 theaters, Wk $5.9M (-53%), Total $117.1M/Wk 6
5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (Sony) 3,506 theaters, Wk $4.9M (-71%)/Total $22M/Wk 2