This month’s edition of The Numbers Business Report, features our biggest annual study: our predictions for the domestic theatrical market in 2026. Not only do we present detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for 2026 Q4 wide releases, but we also have our overall predictions for the year. Our feature article dives into the yearly forecast, going into depth on wide releases earning > $200 million, other wide releases (>2,000 theaters), limited and specialty releases (<2,000 theaters), limited engagement re-releases (<2,000 theaters), holdovers from the previous year, and currently undated films.
If you’re a regular reader, you may have noticed that we’ve refined exactly what we mean by a “wide release” for this study. To qualify as a wide release in our OpusData database and here on The Numbers website, a movie needs to play in 600 domestic theaters. Back when we started collecting box office reports in 1997, that represented a significant investment on the part of the distributor, since it meant shipping at least 600 prints of a film to theaters throughout North America. Today, getting a movie into 600 theaters isn’t nearly the same logistical challenge, and there are far more movies released each year that meet our database’s definition of “wide.” Unfortunately, many of those movies also don’t report box office, or have more niche releases—perhaps playing only a few times over a weekend in a theater, and targeting a very specific audience.
Trying to compile predictions for all of the “wide” releases by our traditional metric has become a fool’s errand, and for the 2026 prediction, we’ve moved the line for a wide release, for the purposes of prediction, to be one that plays in at least 2,000 theaters at some point in its run. That covers all the major studio releases, plus quite a lot of independent films, and gives us a good set for our predictions. In fact, earnings for films playing in over 2,000 theaters represent over 92% of reported box office this year, and we expect those releases to hold a similar market share in 2026. Of course, we still take the remaining 8% seriously, and our 2026 forecast includes predictions for limited and specialty releases and re-releases, which still represent a half-billion-dollar market.
Right now, it looks as though the final number for 2025 will be within 5% of our original prediction of $9.3 million twelve months ago. That would mark four straight years of being within 5% of the actual year-end total 13 months in advance.
To view our full prediction, subscribe here. As a sneak peek, the top-earning film during the year is expected to be The Super Mario Galaxy. The franchise has already broken records, with its first installment becoming the first video-game adaptation to gross more than $1 billion worldwide, and earning $575 million in North America.
Looking into Q4 2026, by month, our current standouts for 2026 total domestic box office earnings are:
October: Untitled Alejandro G. Iñárritu film ($96m)
November: Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping ($184.3m) with an additional $5.7m predicted in 2027.
December: Avengers: Doomsday ($435.5m) with an additional $214.5m predicted in 2027.
To discover our full official prediction for the fourth quarter, and all of 2026, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.
Also in this edition…
We have our final pre-release predictions for all of Decembers’s wide releases, including Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash (among many others), along with our full 2025 prediction.
An update on the Q3 2025 average ticket price.
Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.
For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.
On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.
Alongside The Business Report, we are publishing updated six-week predictions every week. Those have day-by-day predictions of the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Unlock this addition through a subscription.
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