Weekend prediction: two three-way races at the box office

Although the market as a whole is winding down at the end of Summer, box office watchers will have a lot to look for this weekend. The three films that have dominated at the box office over the past four weeks are in a tight race to claim the weekend crown while three new releases will be battling it out for fourth place.

Here are our predictions for this weekend…

First up, the latest faith-based drama from the Kendrick brothers, The Forge:

While it didn’t post huge preview numbers, the model thinks its $600,000 on Thursday is respectable for a faith-based drama:

The model uses a linear regression based on the previews and fundamentals prediction to produce its final opening prediction. When a film outperforms its fundamental expectations, the model will sometimes “follow the trend”, and anticipate an even better opening number. I think it might be a little optimistic in this case, but $8 million or more wouldn’t surprise me.

Next up, Zoë Kravitz’ Blink Twice:

With the previews falling basically in line with the fundamentals, the model is a little more cautious in this case. Once more, $8 million plus looks like a decent bet.

Finally, The Crow

Given the poor reviews this film is getting, there’s a good chance it will further lose pace over the weekend, so hitting $8 million would be considered a very minor win at this point.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Remarkably, the model has very similar predictions for all three of It Ends with Us, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Alien: Romulus. The consensus is that Deadpool will probably win the weekend, but the model gives It Ends with Us the edge.

Given the general uncertainty in predictions, it’s fair to say that the weekend could be won by any one of three films, and all three new wide releases have a shot at fourth place.

While that makes for an interesting race, the fact is that we’re looking at a weekend where all films combined will struggle to muster $100 million. If so, that will end a streak of 11 straight $100-million weekends at the box office, and, honestly, mark the end of Summer.

To finish on a quick personal note, my apologies for the late reports over the past couple of weeks. I’ll be traveling and taking some time off between now and mid-September, but will endeavor to keep you updated with our predictions. Apologies in advance if the reports are published a little late until I’m back.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com