Weekend predictions: Avatar stays top as Marty Supreme looks at surprise second place

Avatar: Fire and Ash will continue its strong run at the box office this weekend, easily topping the chart, and amassing another $60 million or so—enough to take its domestic total to somewhere between $220 million and $230 million by the end of the weekend, according to our model. Marty Supreme is currently favorite to finish in a surprise second place.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

While there’s no question Avatar will land on top again, the race for second place could be close, with Marty Supreme, Anaconda and Zootopia 2 all in the running.

Overall, we’re looking at an decent haul this weekend, and the biggest reason to celebrate that achievement is that it’s not the result of one absolutely giant film dominating the market. Instead, we should have eight films earning close to, or over $10 million, and four topping $15 million. That will give us a weekend on par with last year, although slightly down from last weekend.

With New Year falling on Thursday, we’re expecting continued strong day-to-day numbers for all films, although this is a tough time of year to model, with the performance of films heavily dependent on which days Christmas and New Year fall on. There’s quite a wide range of uncertainty in the predictions above, both collectively and for individual films. There’s no question about the two hits of the Holiday though, and they are at opposite ends of the cinematic spectrum—Avatar: Fire and Ash and Marty Supreme are the two hot tickets right now.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com