Weekend predictions: Deadpool & Wolverine headed for gigantic opening weekend

Deadpool & Wolverine is set to break records this weekend. It already posted the 8th-best previews in history yesterday, with $38.5 million reported by Disney this morning. What that means for the weekend as a whole remains to be seen, but our model is optimistic that it will not only have the best weekend of 2024 so far, but climb high on the all-time list.

Here’s what the model thought of Deadpool & Wolverine before its preview numbers were in:

The big number in the analysis above is that audience tracking adjustment, which nearly doubles the overall prediction for the movie. There’s no question that there’s been high levels of interest, but how that translates into box office dollars is something we only know for sure when people actually start filing into theaters.

The numbers from that perspective couldn’t be much better…

As already noted, $38.5 million is the 8th-best preview number of all time. It’s a shade higher than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness made in 2022 ($36 million), but quite a bit behind Spider-Man: No Way Home, which clocked in with $50 million in previews in December, 2021. Doctor Strange went on to a $187 million opening weekend, while Spider-Man launched with $260 million.

The range of outcomes when translating previews into opening weekend makes predicting the weekend a challenge. At the low end, Thor: Love and Thunder’ previews-to-weekend ratio would translate into $191 million. At the high end, Black Panther’s multiplier would give us and eye-watering $309 million.

Something over $200 million looks like a very good bet right now. The model, as you can see, is much more bullish than that, but we’re in very rarefied atmosphere here, so there’s a large degree of uncertainty in the prediction. The previews-only prediction of $249 million seems a little more likely, although the model has proven me wrong before. Wherever the final figure lands, Disney has its second blockbuster smash hit in the space of less than two months, and there’s a good chance the studio will have come out of nowhere to lead the 2024 box office race by the end of the weekend.

The other film coming out in wide release this weekend will make less of a splash, but perhaps benefit from an audience that doesn’t find Deadpool quite to their taste.

This is a tough film to predict, but it should find a place in the top 10 this weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Twisters will be worth looking out for this weekend. It has stiff competition from Deadpool, but has been doing good weekday numbers. A 50% decline seems ambitious, but it should top $30 million this weekend and end it with something $150 million.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com