Weekend predictions: Demon Slayer and Him in battle for top spot

Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle and Him look as though they will be locked in a close battle for top spot at the box office this weekend, with Demon Slayer looking as though it has a very slight edge at the moment, according to our model’s Friday-morning predictions. With a steep drop expected for the anime film, and Him getting poor reviews, there’s a slim chance that The Conjuring: Last Rites could sneak in for a win.

Here’s our model’s baseline prediction for Him…

The is a movie with a strong pedigree, but it hasn’t really taken off in our tracking over the past few weeks. The fact that it’s only playing in 3,168 theaters suggests soft support from the theater chains too. Its Thursday preview numbers confirm that our tracking has been about right on this one…

Poor tracking, and previews slightly below expectations leads the model to predict a weekend around $17 million, although poor word of mouth could kick in quickly, and something closer to $15 million is a possibility.

Talking of films with a strong pedigree that aren’t luring in moviegoers…

Coming on the heals of The Life of Chuck earning just $6.7 million in total, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was already looking like a miss based on what we were seeing coming into the weekend. That’s an alarming sign for this kind of drama, which consumers seem more inclined to watch at home these days.

The previews confirm a very modest weekend…

The reviews don’t look good for this film, although it does seem the kind of film that could get some decent business when it shows up on video. Based on how it’s looking this weekend, that could happen very soon.

Finally, Angel Studios are back with another faith-based feel-good drama. We don’t have preview numbers (as is usual for Angel Studios), but we’re sticking with our baseline prediction for this one.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The model is expecting Demon Slayer to drop by 75% from its opening, which would be fairly typical for an anime title. This isn’t a typical anime movie though, so there’s a fair range of possibilities. If it performs more like a regular broad-appeal animated film, it could top $20 million. If its opening was purely a for-the-fans event, it might miss $15 million.

With Him also faltering, there is a small opening for Conjuring: The Last Rites to sneak in for a weekend win. Overall, though, this is looking like a somewhat disappointing weekend. Two weeks ago, we were anticipating a comfortable improvement over the same weekend last year. As of this morning, it looks quite likely we’ll be down year-on-year.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com