Weekend predictions: Dog Man headed for top on slow weekend

It’ll be another slow weekend in theaters, but at least we’ll have a relatively strong opening to report on Sunday. After a series of middling performances for comparable films recently, our model is being very conservative on its prediction for Dog Man, but there’s little question it’ll top the chart this weekend. Fellow wide-opener Companion is set to finish second.

Here are the model’s detailed predictions for this weekend’s new wide releases

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

There’s virtually no doubt that Dog Man will come out top, but projections call for something well above the model’s current $16.1-million prediction. Something closer to the fundamentals prediction of $24.5 million is a good bet, and the film could go higher. As the preview comparisons chart above shows, it’s rare for an animated movie to start with under $2.5 million and have a Thursday-to-Sunday opener over 20. That makes $27.2 million a reasonable cap on expectations. However, family films have large multipliers in general, making then inherently hard to predict.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com