Weekend predictions: Godzilla and Kong set to smash into theaters with weekend in the 70s or 80s

Dune: Part Two’s $82.5 million opening weekend might not be the biggest of 2024 come Monday morning as Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire comes crashing into theaters this weekend. The monster movie racked up $10 million from previews on Thursday, just a little behind Dune’s $12 million previews a month ago. Our model doesn’t think the record will fall, but Godzilla could come close…

Here’s our model’s baseline analysis of Godzilla x Kong:

The comparison with Godzilla vs. Kong is a tough one to measure because that one of the first major studio movie to hit theaters as they opened up back in March, 2021. At the time, the model estimated the market was at about one third its normal strength, so a $32.2-million was the equivalent of earning over $100 million under usual circumstances.

The history of the franchise since 2014’s Godzilla has waxed and waned, but things looked promising going into the weekend, and the model’s $65-million opening-weekend prediction and $155 million total box office for the film would unquestionably make it a hit.

Its preview number points towards a monster hit:

$80 million looks like a possibility, although it’s unlikely the film will get much beyond that. There’s still a chance it will fall below $70 million. For example, Dune 2’s multiplier was just 6.88, which would translate into a $68.8 million weekend for Godzilla x Kong. Something in the mid-70s seems like the best bet to me.

Also opening wide this weekend is In the Land of Saints and Sinners, starring Liam Neeson alongside a bevy of fellow Irish actors.

This film is starting out in a relatively small number of theaters by Neeson’s recent standards, but that’s not an unreasonable business decision given that his films have been on a bit of a decline recently. Getting to $2 million might be a stiff target for this film, but hopefully it’ll crack $1 million this weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

All eyes are on the two monster icons, Godzilla and Kong, this weekend. It looks like we should have a big “up” weekend, complicated only by Easter falling on Sunday. That might trim a few millions dollars off the weekend numbers for a few of these films.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com