Weekend predictions: IF faltering as we head into another disappointing weekend

After a good opening for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes last weekend, it looked as though Summer season momentum was building. Soft preview numbers for IF are cause for concern though. As a family film, it should play strongly through the weekend, but it’ll need to perform very strongly to hit the $40 million or $50 million that we’d hoped for. Meanwhile, The Strangers: Part 1 is looking solid, and Back to Black is, as expected, falling short of its potential.

Here’s what the model thought of IF going into the weekend…

As a family-friendly comedy with significant star power, IF seems like a good bet for a hit at this time of year. While hitting $55 million this weekend was perhaps an ambitious target (and our model’s figure was somewhat higher than general industry expectations), something over $40 million seemed very likely.

The film’s Thursday preview numbers make that looks a distant prospect…

Preview numbers for films like this aren’t a perfect predictor for how the weekend will turn out, with Thursday-to-weekend multipliers varying between 10 and 25. But even if IF does 20 times its previews this weekend, it will only reach $35 million on debut.

Our model hammers it for falling so far below expectations so far, and its prediction of $23.7 million may well prove to be on the low side. It wouldn’t be a surprise if it failed to make $30 million though.

The Strangers: Part 1 provides counter-programming this weekend. Our model was expecting a decent opening, based partly on the performance of it predecessors in the franchise, and also Lionsgate’s record with horror movies.

It’s living up to expectations so far…

$11 million or $12 million this weekend isn’t a massive figure, but it’s a welcome addition, given the weakness of IF.

Finally, biopic Back to Black arrives in a couple of thousand theaters…

The relatively low theater count for a film like this, and modest audience interest, muted expectations ahead of the weekend. The preview numbers point to a soft opening.

There’s still some room for improvement for Back to Black, but it looks as though it will make a relatively short visit to theaters.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

My money is on IF topping our model’s prediction and winning the weekend fairly comfortably, but it certainly isn’t inconceivable for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to end up top of the chart this weekend. That would be a shock though. We’ll need to see really strong legs for IF to top $30 million, and, even if it does, we’re looking at another disappointing weekend in theaters.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com