Weekend predictions: Inside Out set to dominate again on its second weekend

Inside Out 2 will post a big win at the box office this weekend, after its spectacular start last time. There’s only one new wide release, The Bikeriders, which could do well as an indie film with potentially fairly wide appeal, but will almost certainly finish third this week, with Bad Boys: Ride or Die continuing its run in second place.

Here’s the model’s analysis of the potential for The Bikeriders:

Due to scheduling conflicts, this column will go out before we have any preview data on Bikeriders, so our prediction is a tentative one. There’s quite a lot of audience interest in this film, and a $9-million debut would be a good result.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 9 will look like.

Although there’s a fairly high range of potential error on the opening for The Bikeriders, it’ll probably need to get anywhere from $5 million to $25 million to land in third place. That’s a very wide margin of error, so its place in the top three is pretty much assured!

The big news will be how much Inside Out 2 makes this weekend. It has already had a spectacular week, grossing over $30 million on Wednesday alone. Our prediction reflects that performance, but we’re in rarified territory with this film. A weekend over $100 million can’t be ruled out, given the legs it’s shown so far. A decline below $70 million isn’t out of the question, however. I suspect our prediction is a little on the low side, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Inside Out 2 land somewhere in the $95-million range this weekend. Something even higher is possible, but that might be wishful thinking based on how well it’s been performing so far. Anything over $80 million is worth celebrating. That would take it well past $300 million after just 10 days in theaters, giving it one of the top 20 starts of all time (it’s already the 17th-fastest film to reach $200 million domestically).

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com