Weekend predictions: Lion King likely to stay top as Den of Thieves opens

This should be the first “normal” weekend of the year in movie theaters, with the holidays behind us and some new releases arriving. The LA wildfires have had a minor impact on our business operations this week (and I’m happy to report that we’re all safe and unscathed so far), and it remains to be seen what impact they, along with wintery weather elsewhere in the country, will mean for theatrical business. Grosses were down quite steeply on Wednesday, but bounced back a little yesterday. Hopefully our underlying assumption that the effect will be fairly minor proves to be a good one.

There are a lot of contenders for the box office crown this weekend, but the model thinks Mufasa: The Lion King will stay top, just ahead of Sonic the Hedgehog 3. Given the many uncertainties, that’s hardly a sure-thing, and Den of Thieves 2: Pantera can’t be entirely ruled out as a possible chart-topper.

Here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Den of Thieves 2:

Its Thursday previews are right in line with expectations…

$14 million or so would be a good result for a movie like this at the beginning of the year. The Beekeeper’s $16.6-million opening this time last year looks out of reach, but that was an exceptional result.

Two other films are opening wide this weekend. The first, Better Man looked good on paper, but has had a quiet time in limited release. The model predicts a soft weekend…

The model’s prediction, just $260,000, might prove to be a little pessimistic, but it shows that anything over $1 million would be a good result at this point.

Finally, The Last Showgirl has high hopes for some awards, and could give Roadside Attractions one of their best openings in a while…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

As noted, Den of Thieves probably won’t end up number one this weekend, but Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog could have more sizable drops than the model expects, given that families are more focused on going back to school right now. A sneak win can’t be ruled out, but it will require strong legs for Den of Thieves and a steep drop for the two Holiday champs.

Overall, as we’d expect, business looks like it will be down from last weekend, but coming somewhere close to $90 million would be a good result. My hunch is that outside events will drag things down a little from what the model is predicting.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com