Weekend predictions: Longlegs looking at surprise top 3 finish

Summer so far has been dominated by family movies, and there’s little doubt that Despicable Me 4 will continue their run at the top of the box office chart this weekend. The movie that looks as though it will finish second or third is decidedly not family-friendly. Longlegs posted an excellent $3 million in previews on Thursday, which should set it up for a great opening weekend. Fly Me to the Moon, meanwhile, has more modest ambitions, but will still be hoping for a place in the top 5.

Here’s what the model thought of Longlegs before its preview numbers were in:

Buzz has been growing around the film, and Neon have been getting better and better results from their horror movies (in the graph above, their films are ordered chronologically with the most recent film shown on the left). Working against it is the general weakness of the theatrical market right now. Even with great buzz, that caused our model to expect an opening less than $10 million.

The previews point to something much higher.

Horror movies tend to make around ten times their preview numbers on opening weekend, which suggests that $30 million is on the cards for Longlegs. I think that’s on the high side, but $25 million is in play, which would be a spectacular result for Neon.

Fly Me to the Moon has excellent pedigree, and there’s a feeling that romantic comedies are finally gaining ground after a dismal few years. Buzz on this one looked good early on, but excitement hasn’t really built in the past few weeks.

A $14-million opening was looking like an increasingly distant target, and $875,000 in previews makes that seem even less likely. But rom coms generally make high multipliers of their preview totals:

$14 million still seems like a good bet for this one right now.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Despicable Me 4 looks virtually certain to win the weekend, and Inside Out 2 still has a good chance of finishing second. But Longlegs will be the film to look out for when weekend projections are released on Sunday morning. Anything over $10 million would be a significant success for the film, and it looks like it will do much better than that.

It’s also worth keeping an eye out for The Lion King. Re-releases are hard to predict, but it should land comfortably in the top 10, according to our model.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com