Weekend predictions: Mickey 17 set to take over at top of the chart

After dominating at the box office for three weeks, Captain America: Brave New World will give way to Mickey 17 this weekend, according to our weekend prediction. The Bong Joon-ho/Robert Pattinson sci-fi black comedy hasn’t been tracking particularly well compared to its reported $118-million budget, but its Thursday preview numbers gives us some cause to hope it’ll post a good weekend.

Here’s our model’s fundamentals prediction for Mickey 17…

Ironically, our model’s comps always predicted a fairly modest opening for this film, based on its quirky nature. If it strikes a chord with the right kind of audience, it could enjoy fairly long legs in theaters, but the model was mostly predicting an opening over $20 million thanks to fairly high audience interest.

That has been borne out in the preview numbers, which are pretty good…

The big question as we go into the weekend is how many people were showing up last night because they’re big fans of Robert Pattison or Bong Joon-ho. That fan base may have skewed Thursday’s numbers higher, which would mean a lower-than-predicted weekend total overall. Something around $20 million seems a good bet at this point, but getting higher than that will rely on a broadening audience through the weekend.

Also opening wide this weekend is Rule Breakers from Angel Studios.

We don’t have a preview number for this one, but this isn’t the sort of movie where previews will play a big role. Audience tracking is quiet for this film, and an opening under $3 million seems quite likely.

The final new wide release for which we have an official theater count is Night of the Zoopocalypse from Viva Pictures…

Anything over $1 million should be considered a success for this film, given its relatively low theater count. Viva’s previous film, Hitpig! opened with $1.15 million from 2,055 theaters. A similar average per theater for Zoopocalypse would equate to $786,000.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Note that we don’t have a theater count, and therefore no prediction, for In the Lost Lands. It could do some business (our baseline model said its target was $3.2 million), but a lack of buzz, and no announced theater count suggests it will have a quiet weekend. A place in the top 10 can’t be ruled out, however.

Overall, Mickey 17 could help the market dig out of its current hole a little, but the fact that the top 10 will barely top $50 million between them means lots of empty seats in movie theaters this weekend.

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com