Weekend predictions: Moana and Wicked will dominate on another record weekend

Moana 2 and Wicked will combine for another blockbuster weekend in theaters, with our model predicting that the top 10 films will earn $146 million between them, a record for the first weekend after Thanksgiving. Moana 2 should hold on to top spot, although Wicked has been running neck-and-neck with it during the week and the model sees the potential for an unusually strong hold for the Oz musical.

No less than five films open in wide release this weekend, and our model has predictions for four of them. The fifth, the Bollywood movie Pushpa 2: The Rule is ironically expected to have the best weekend of them all. None of the new wide releases is going to challenge the top three films, and there’s sufficient competition between them that the model may prove to be overly optimistic about several of them.

Here are the predictions for the four non-Bollywood debutants:

Werewolves is the only film that has reported previews from Thursday, and they don’t look particularly promising…

Finally, not opening in wide release, but still on our radar is horror comedy Get Away…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Moana 2 is firm favorite to win the weekend, but Wicked looks like it will have another stellar weekend. With Gladiator II and Red One still looking likely to draw good crowds, we’re entering the final stretch of the year in great shape.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com