Weekend predictions: One Battle After Another will win the weekend

Despite being one of the most respected and award-winning directors in Hollywood, Paul Thomas Anderson has somehow contrived never to have one of his films earn more than $5 million over the course of a weekend. The closest he’s come is There Will Be Blood, which picked up $4.87 million on its fifth weekend in release, back in January 2008 (and landed in 9th on a chart led by, believe it or not, Meet the Spartans). That record will be beaten easily this weekend as One Battle After Another will mark the start of awards season with an opening that looks set to exceed $20 million. That will ensure not only a best weekend for Anderson, but also his first chart-topper.

Here’s our model’s baseline prediction for One Battle After Another…

It (almost) goes without saying that one of the big differences between this PT Anderson film and all the others is Leonardo DiCaprio, who has one of the best tracks in the business, even for movies like this that are tricky to market. Add to that the fact that Warner Bros. has been on a roll this year, and our model ended up with something in the region of $30 million being on the cards. After factoring in market conditions and ticket pre-sales, we settled on a predicted $25 million debut (although note the fantastic expected legs, and $100-million potential final total).

The movie’s previews basically lived up to expectations…

Everything seems to be converging on an opening between $20 million and $25 million, which is great by many metrics, although does break Warner Bros.’ run of $40-million-plus openers. With stellar reviews, awards season buzz, and an audience that will skew somewhat older than the general movie-going population, look for a long run for this one.

Second place should go to Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, which was tracking quite well going into the weekend…

We’re hearing that actual ticket sales have been soft so far, so Gabby may not deliver quite the hoped-for business. Something over $10 million still looks likely.

Finally, The Strangers: Chapter 2 will be looking to snag some horror fans.

Reviews haven’t been favorable for this film, which has been delayed from its original planned release in late 2024. Lionsgate didn’t announce any preview numbers, which is another sign this film is likely to unperform.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The weekend will clearly belong to One Battle After Another, with Gabby’s Dollhouse almost certainly coming second. The dark horse this weekend is They Call Him OG, which posted an estimated $3.8 million yesterday to top the chart, and will be playing through the weekend. Indian movies tend to pack a big punch on opening day, and we don’t have enough information on this film’s weekend plans to issue a prediction for it. A place in the top 10 looks a virtual certainty though, and we’ll hopefully have more info on Sunday.

Overall, we’re looking at a solidly “up” weekend, although in total we’ll probably be down for this weekend in 2024, when The Wild Robot opened with $35.8 million. Also worth noting from that weekend is that Indian blockbuster Devara: Part 1 turned a $3.9-million opening day into a $5.6-million opening weekend, with just $1.7 million on days two and three. That puts something around $2.5 million as a good benchmark for They Call Him OG.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com