Weekend predictions: Sinners to open strong, challenging Minecraft for box office crown

Sinners is opening to fantastic reviews and posted good preview numbers on Thursday, with $4.7 million already in the bank going into Friday. Our model thinks that should translate into an opening weekend around $47 million. Whether that will be enough to defeat A Minecraft Movie depends on how that family-friendly film competes over Easter weekend.

Our baseline model was not confident about Sinners likelihood of opening to a huge number, but audience buzz has been growing over the past few weeks, and we went into the weekend with a 235% adjustment for audience interest—very high by historical standards…

The audience buzz has been borne out by excellent preview numbers…

Could Sinners go higher thanks to good word of mouth this week? Maybe. Even if it doesn’t this is an excellent opening.

Two other films get predictions from our model this weekend. First up, comedy Sneaks…

Second, anime film COLORFUL STAGE!…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

This weekend’s results could be skewed quite a bit by Easter. A Minecraft Movie could be helped or hurt by the religious holiday. My sense is that the model is probably a little too optimistic about its performance this weekend.

Meanwhile, The King of Kings should be helped, and likewise The Chosen: Last Supper—Part 3.

So, going into the weekend, the contours of the box office race are quite well defined, but the details of which movie will end up on top of the chart, and how Easter might help or hurt the final total for the weekend are quite uncertain. The good news is that we’re looking at another decent weekend in movie theaters.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com