Weekend predictions: Sonic charging to weekend win

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 looks like it will not only win the weekend, but do so handily, as Mufasa: The Lion King looks surprisingly weak as of Friday morning. Both films should have long legs through the holidays, but Mufasa has a lot of ground to make up after posting just $3.3 million in previews on Thursday.

Here’s what the model thought of Sonic the Hedgehog 3 going into the weekend:

Its previews are a little behind the model’s expectations, but still strong…

Mufasa looked, on paper, as though it could be one of the biggest movies of 2024, but buzz has never really taken off, and our prediction was already headed downwards going into the weekend.

Its preview numbers look well below what it needed…

Last up this weekend is Angel Studios’ Homestead, which is looking for a spot somewhere in the middle of the top 10…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Also worth noting this weekend, The Brutalist opens in four theaters for A24. That’s probably not enough to get it into the top 10, but look for a very high theater average for a film that’s widely tipped to get an Oscar Best Picture nomination.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com