Weekend predictions: Twisters should spin up $60 million or more on opening weekend

Twisters looks set to add more momentum to the Summer season this weekend, with $2 million from special screenings on Wednesday, $8.7 million from previews on Thursday, and reportedly excellent business already on Friday. Based on the official info we have so far, it looks as though it should earn more than $60 million this weekend, which is an excellent result for a movie that’s arriving more than 28 years after the previous installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, Oddity will try to find its way into the top ten, hot on the heals of Longlegs’ big debut last weekend.

Here’s what the model thought of Twisters before its preview numbers were in:

It’s so long since the original Twister that the model doesn’t treat this like a franchise film, instead using PG-13-rated thrillers and action movies as a guide. Generally, unless they are part of a major franchise, these films open with around $35 million in pre-pandemic box office dollars. Audience buzz has been good for Twisters, which boosted the model’s prediction up to a $46-million opening and $126 million in total.

The previews point to something much higher.

The split between special screenings on Wednesday and previews on Thursday make this a little harder to predict, but the bottom line is that the model is bullish on Twisters breaking $60 million this weekend, with something in the mid-60s looking likely. With a bit of a tailwind, hitting $70 million looks a possibility. Anything over $50 million would put this firmly in the “hit” category.

Further outings for the franchise seem very likely given the result so far, but this may be a case of absence making audiences grow fonder of the idea—there’s only so much one can do with the concept, one would think. (Aside from adding sharks, of course.)

Horror movie Oddity has more modest goals, but performing like a typical IFC Films horror wide release should get it into the top 10.

We don’t have much info on how Oddity is performing so far, so it’s fair to say this prediction should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Overall, we’re looking at an “up” week, thanks entirely to the performance of Twisters. Look out for the second weekend number for Longlegs to see if it has, well, long legs. Fly Me to the Moon is also worth looking out for. The model thinks it will have a relatively good hold in its second outing, and it’ll need something spectacular to stay in theaters for any great length of time, but it’s the kind of movie that could get a long run out of good word of mouth.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com