Weekend predictions: Venom favorite for third weekend win, Heretic shooting for second place

Venom: The Last Dance goes into its third weekend as favorite to win the race at the box office. Newcomers Heretic and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever could theoretically challenge Venom, but will most likely be battling for second place. With four or five other films opening in over 400 theaters, we once again are looking at a crowded weekend for movies, but a continued quiet time in movie theaters.

Heretic marks another step in A24’s transformation from a indie distributor to a challenger to the major studios. With an opening in over 3,200 theaters, the horror movie has a shot at top spot, but our model thought it was headed for something a bit short of that…

The preview figures are pointing to a good debut, although still not enough to unseat Venom…

This is looking like it will deliver A24 their second-best opening of the year, after Civil War.

Here’s the model’s original take on The Best Christmas Pageant Ever…

It’s fair to say that Holiday Season is officially under way, with this family comedy looking to tap into parents and grandparents who remember very similar films from their childhoods. Is the film hitting that goal…?

… probably.

The $2.3 million earned in sneak previews makes this a tricky weekend to predict, but $10 million seems on the cards.

The two other films we have predictions for this weekend are an anime film, and a sci-fi action movie.

First up, Overlord: THe Sacred Kingdom from Sony.

The relatively low theater count for this film is mitigated by fairly high audience interest. Honestly, it’s hard to know where the film will land.

Elevation is a sci-fi action film from Vertical Entertainment, who got a decent opening weekend out of The Exorcism over the Summer.

This is another film that’s hard to predict, but Vertical will be hoping for a weekend in the top 10.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Venom isn’t absolutely guaranteed top spot, but looks fairly safe going into the weekend. One wildcard is Anora. We don’t have a theater count for that film, and a modest expansion should be enough to put it back in the top 10, particularly if Terrifier 3 loses a lot of theaters following Halloween—we don’t have a report on the theater count for that film either.

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com