Weekend predictions: Wolf Man and One of Them Days join battle for box office bragging rights

Wolf Man and One of Them Days arrive in theaters this weekend, and will likely make up two of the top three films at the box office. Wolf Man came in a little behind expectations with $1.4 million in previews yesterday, while One of Them Days arguably has more momentum going into the weekend, with its $1.3 million in previews just a shade higher than anticipated. It also has the better reviews of the two. Mufasa: The Lion King will benefit from the MLK weekend, and could yet win the weekend as a whole, but it’s looking like a close race.

Here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Wolf Man:

Its Thursday previews are looking just a touch soft…

The model is predicting a downward trajectory for this film over the weekend, and a final 3-day number under $12 million. It might yet pick up some momentum, but $14 million seems like the upper limit right now.

One of Them Days was expected to debut with a little under $10 million, partly thanks to a relatively lower opening theater count…

Its Thursday previews are right in line with expectations…

Once more, the model ends up with a prediction slightly on the low side, but good word of mouth could yet take the film close to $10 million, and the long weekend should help it too.

Finally, September 5:

We were expecting a wider opening for this film. With a debut in just 121 theaters, topping $2 million seems a stretch, but it’ll be worth looking out for, particularly given its swath of awards nominations. Perhaps the delay in announcements for many of the major awards over the past week or two caused Paramount to press the hold button a little on its rollout?

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Overall, this is looking like a very soft MLK weekend, with the Holiday holdovers running out of steam and nothing major to take their place. The corresponding weekend over the past three years has had a film earning around $30 million over three days: Mean Girls brought in $28.6 million last year, Avatar: The Way of Water nabbed $32.8 million in 2023, and Scream came in with $30 million in 2022. We won’t have anything close to that this year, and earning less than $70 million from the top 10 between Friday and Sunday would be a disappointing result.