Weekend predictions: Zootopia likely winner in last weekend before the Holiday rush

Zootopia 2 is the clear favorite to come top at the box office this weekend, with Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 likely to take a steep fall from its $64-million opening last weekend.
Wicked: For Good should land third, with Ella McCay (the only new release playing in over 2,000 theaters) and the re-released How the Grinch Stole Christmas looking likely to battle for fourth and fifth places.

Here’s our baseline for Ella McCay:

With no reported previews for the movie, our prediction is based solely on our model’s comps and pre-release tracking. There’s not much buzz around the film, and $4 million may prove to be an optimistic target. The good news here is 1) a film like this doesn’t need to do huge business in theaters to end up profitable, and it could have a long life in the home market and on streaming; and 2) this is exactly the kind of film we see more of in theaters. Kudos to 20th Century Studios for releasing it (although its 2,500 theater count sounds like it might be a contractual obligation rather than a sign of enthusiasm on the part of the studio).

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Silent Night, Deadly Night is playing in 1,643 theaters this weekend, and has a good shot at making the top 10. Dust Bunny is also reportedly opening wide, although we don’t have an official theater count for it.

Overall, we’re looking at a weekend down almost half from last weekend, but a more respectable 8% behind this weekend last year. If two films top $20 million, movie theaters won’t feel deserted, but this is definitely the calm before the storm, with Avatar: Fire and Ash expected to dominate screens starting next weekend, and three other wide releases—The Housemaid, and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants—all filling important niches when the Holidays start in earnest.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com