Weekend projections: Despicable Me 4 continues good Summer run for family films

Despicable Me 4 is headed for a Friday-to-Sunday opening in the region of $75 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. With $47.6 million already earned from Wednesday and Thursday, the animated comedy will end the weekend with over $120 million in the bank. Inside Out 2 is being hurt a little by the competition, but will still put another $30 million into the bank on its fourth weekend (giving it the 12th-best fourth weekend). Once more, family audiences are leading the charge in theaters.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Despicable Me 4 is coming in a shade below our Friday-morning prediction, but, as I noted at the time, this was a hard weekend to predict, with July 4 falling on a Thursday. That opening date also makes direct comparisons with previous releases in the franchise tricky. However, Despicable Me 2 opened on the equivalent day in 2013, and picked up $84.2 million on the Friday-to-Sunday weekend, and $143 million over its first five days. Given the change in the theatrical market since then, this opening is excellent, and speaks to the staying power of the franchise. Including the Minions movies, the Despicable Me franchise has overtaken Shrek as the top-grossing animated franchise at the domestic box office.

Internationally, Despicable Me will pick up $73 million this weekend as it opens in 52 additional markets. Its international cume will be $107 million at the end of the weekend, for $229.5 million worldwide. It will post an excellent $12.6 million in Mexico on opening weekend, and Hispanic audiences are a substantial driving force behind its domestic performance too, with an audience that is 39% Hispanic, 29% Causasian, 12% African-American, 12% Asian, and 8% other according to tracking polls. As one would expect, the audience also skews young, with 23% under 12, and a total of 58% under 25.

Other international markets for Despicable Me 4 so far: Australia, $16.2 million after three weekends; Argentina, $6.6 million after three weekends; Brazil, with a $5.9-million opening; Spain, with $5.7 million on debut; and Chile, $5.4 million after two weekends. Inside Out 2 is a juggernaut in comparison, having picked up $90.2 million from Mexico, $55.3 million from Brazil, and $50.3 million from the United Kingdom.

Domestically, Inside Out suffered from direct competition this weekend, but continues to post stellar numbers. Our model’s prediction of its final box office stands at $614 million as of this morning. By comparison, Despicable Me 4 is predicted to earn $272 million, based on its first five days (although something well over $300 million remains firmly on the cards).

Meanwhile, MaXXXine will have the best opening in the X franchise with $6.7 million. That’s an impressive result, particularly given the reported $1 million budget for films in the franchise, and suggests more films are on the way.

The one disappointment this weekend is Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot, which will put together $3.2 million between Friday and Sunday, and finish the weekend with $6.8 million in total. Its four-day figure is in line with other openings for Angel Studios, which suggests audiences didn’t pick up on its connection to last Summer’s Sound of Freedom.

Overall, it looks as though this weekend will slightly top the last two weekends in total, and family films are once more to the fore. This will be the sixth weekend out of the past eight where a family film has topped the chart, with IF and The Garfield Movie both having managed the feat before Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4. Despicable Me will most likely hold on to top spot next weekend, before Twisters and Deadpool & Wolverine hopefully dominate the end of the month, and bring somewhat older audiences back into theaters with them.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com