Weekend projections: F1 makes flying start with $55.6 million, while M3GAN 2.0 is a major miss

F1 will beat our Friday-morning prediction by a few million dollars, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. The studio has the motor racing action movie opening with $55.6 million this morning, and an even more impressive $88.4 million internationally, for a global debut of $144 million. Among other landmarks, this is Brad Pitt’s biggest global opening weekend. Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0 is a major miss for Universal and Blumhouse, with just $10.2 million domestically, and only $7 million overseas.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

F1 is earning stellar scores from audiences, with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes audience score and an A CinemaScore. Premium formats are delivering about 55% of business this weekend, according to Warner Bros., with strong results from IMAX and Dolby Cinema, and Motion Seating.

Internationally, F1 is generating good business from countries where Formula 1 is popular, with the studio citing Eastern Europe, UAE, and Latin America. Top-grossing territories are United Kingdom, $9.2 million; China, $9.0 million; Mexico $6.7m; France, $5.4m; and Australia, at $5.0m.

M3GAN 2.0, meanwhile, is a major bust. It does have the advantage of a $25-million production budget, compared to something around $250 million for F1, so technically it’s earning more per production dollar, but marketing costs will swamp that marginal advantage. Creatively, the film delivered on a need to give crowds something new, and it’s actually getting a higher audience approval score than M3GAN’s previous outing (a B+ CinemaScore, compared to B for M3GAN). Unfortunately, it hasn’t brought its original audience along as it switches gears from a horror-focused sci-fi movie to more of a sci-fi action movie. Good word of mouth may help it deliver decent results on the home market, but it’s a theatrical bust.

Overall, the market is looking in good shape, with How to Train Your Dragon continuing to perform well, and Jurassic World Rebirth entering the fray on Wednesday.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com