Weekend projections: Minecraft blasts into theaters with $157-million weekend

A Minecraft Movie is taking advantage of Spring Break to perfection this weekend, with a stunning $157-million debut weekend—far higher than expected, even when ticket pre-sales were taking off in the days leading up to its release. That’s not just the best weekend of the year, but the best ever for a movie based on a game, and the sixth-highest weekend for a movie that’s not a sequel.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Minecraft’s opening almost literally broke our model. On Friday, I confidently stated that “The $146 million earned by The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in 2023 is surely out of reach”. That was because it would need a massive 13.9 times multiplier from its previews to its final weekend box office, something not achieved by any comparable film. In the event, Warner Bros. is predicting a multiplier of 14.9. That’s driven by $60 million in ticket sales on Saturday, which is the 15th-best Saturday ever, and the best Saturday in history for the studio. With that kind of momentum, the film could still top the weekend projection of $157 million, which relies on $39 million in sales on Sunday. Other industry predictions I’ve seen this morning are settled around $155 million or so, but there’s still an upside possibility of $160 million.

Internationally, the film is also doing well, with $144 million projected for the weekend by Warner Bros.. That’s led by $19.9 million in the United Kingdom, $14.5 million in China, $11.2 million from Mexico, and $10.6 million in Germany.

In spite of the uncertainty around the broader economy going into the weekend, movie fans have packed theaters, and once again shown that success in this business is driven by one thing only: giving customers what they want.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Please help support The Numbers with a monthly or one-time donation, or by subscribing to The Numbers Business Report. We keep advertising to a minimum, and only for advertisers who we believe are directly of interest to our readers. If you’d like to advertise your movie or service with us, please email us at advertising(at)the-numbers.com.

Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com