Weekend projections: Moana and Wicked combine for divine Thanksgiving

Moana 2 is breaking virtually every Thanksgiving record, with a $221-million five-day opening, including $135 million over the Friday-to-Sunday period, according to Disney’s Sunday projection. That’s the biggest Thanksgiving weekend by far, beating Frozen II’s 3-day total by nearly $50 million. With Wicked and Gladiator II continuing their pace from last weekend, this will be the second-biggest weekend of the year in theaters.

Here’s how the three-day, Friday-to-Sunday weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Moana’s superlative opening continues a great year for Disney, with Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine already the top two films of the year in theaters. Since we don’t have predictions for the Thanksgiving weekend, I’ve included in the chart above our model’s predicted final domestic total for each film in the top 10 this weekend. Based on its first five days, the model thinks Moana 2 is headed for over $500 million, while Wicked is on its way to over $400 million. That would make them the third- and fourth-biggest movies of the year. Mufasa: The Lion King is the only movie remaining this year that is favored to make that kind of money in total, and its December 20 release date means it will likely take well into the New Year to make that much, if it does so.

Among the records Disney is claiming this weekend are the highest 5-day opening of all time (surpassing The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($204.6 million)), the best Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, and the best opening for Walt Disney Animation Studios, beating Frozen II.

With an A- CinemaScore, 87% verified moviegoer rating on RottenTomatoes, and 4.5/5 stars from ComScore PosTrak, Disney is confident the film will have good legs. Demographics skew 65-35 female to male, with a large young contingent: 25% under 12, 15% 13–17, 12% 18-24, 16% 25–34, 20% 35–44, 9% 45–54, and only 4% 55 and older.

Internationally, Moana 2 will have the 2nd-highest international opening of 2024, with $165.3 million, again behind only Deadpool & Wolverine. Its biggest markets so far are France, $18.8 million; the United Kingdom, $15.5 million; Mexico, $11.1 million; and Germany, $10.5 million. Its global total has already reached $386.3 million.

Wicked isn’t making quite as big a splash internationally, but will pick up another $28.974 million outside North America this weekend, according to Universal. That takes it to $96.845 million internationally, and $359.271 million worldwide. Its biggest markets are the United Kingdom, $35.967 million; Australia, $12.929 million; and South Korea, $8.525 million.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com