Weekend projections: Superman easily sees off new releases

Superman will stay top of the box office charts comfortably this weekend, thanks partly to a very respectable 54% decline from its opening (right in line with our model’s prediction, but better than industry expectations). With Jurassic World Rebirth also holding on well in its third weekend, I Know What You Did Last Summer was consigned to a third-place opening, and Smurfs will land fourth this weekend.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Superman will end the weekend with about $235 million from domestic theaters, and $166 million internationally, neatly taking it just past $400 million worldwide after two weekends. If one excludes preview earnings, its domestic decline is 44%, while it’s down 47% from last weekend internationally. That confirms good word of mouth for the super hero, although international numbers are still slightly disappointing. Top international markets so far include the United Kingdom, with $22.2 million; Mexico, $16.6 million; Brazil, $11.2 million; and Australia, with $11 million. The Chinese apparently aren’t huge fans of iconic American heroes right now, and have spent a modest $8.5 million to see Superman don his tights so far.

Chinese audiences are much more into dinosaurs, it seems, as Jurassic World Rebirth has grossed $71.8 million there now (the best result for a US studio film this year so far). With $33.7 million from the UK & Ireland, and $28.7 million from Mexico, plus seven other countries with over $10 million, Rebirth is storming past $600 million globally this weekend, with Universal putting its totals so far at $276 million domestic and $372 million internationally. It is the sixth Jurassic Park film to top $600 million worldwide.

I Know What You Did Last Summer will have the worst opening weekend for any movie in the franchise, even without adjusting for inflation. Given that ticket prices were $4.59 back in 1997, when the original came out, and $11.30 now, that’s a sharp drop-off in performance. The one redeeming feature is that the budget for this outing is a modest $18 million—about the same as the budgets for previous installments, not adjusted for inflation. With $11.6 million internationally, this looks like the end of the line for the franchise.

Smurfs is likewise struggling domestically, but is helped by $25 million in international earnings, giving it a $36-million global debut. This has always been a strong property internationally, and should perform well on the home market. Its $58-million production budget is looking a little on the high side right now, though.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com