Weekend projections: Thunderbolts’ good hold lands it with $33.1 million on second weekend

Thunderbolts* will decline a very respectable 55% from its opening to land with around $33.1 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning report. With Sinners seeing its first substantial weekend-to-weekend decline, the Marvel movie will come out a comfortable winner at the box office this weekend.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Thunderbolts*’ second-weekend decline is basically identical to those of Guardians of the Galaxy and Captain Marvel, and bettered only by Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 (48% decline), Shang Chi… (54%), and Deadpool & Wolverine among recent MCU outings.

We’re clearly in the “post-modern” era for Marvel, with audiences responding better to mold-breaking stories than the “classic” Marvel films. At the end of the day, though, Thunderbolts* looks likely to finish with just under $200 million (our model is predicting a $193-million domestic total this morning, although Memorial Day should give it a bit of a kick above that number). Captain America: Brave New World will finish with $201 million or so. Thunderbolts* has much the better legs of the two movies, but the final result looks as though it won’t be much different.

The same is true internationally, with Captain America currently running at $214.6 million internationally, and Thunderbolts* likely to end with something similar. Its best territories, as of this morning, are the United Kingdom, with $15.5 million; China, $13.8 million; and Mexico, $11.2 million. It has $143.7 million overseas to date, and $272.2 million worldwide.

While Sinners is having a more normal weekend this time around, dropping 36% in its fourth outing, it has passed $200 million domestically, and will benefit from returning to IMAX screens again later this week. Our model now predicts it will finish with $254 million domestically, and that doesn’t factor in Memorial Day or the boost from IMAX and other PLF screens…

The other notable result this weekend comes from Clown in a Cornfield, which comes from the RLJ Entertainment / Shudder label in the newly-reorganized IFC Entertainment Group. The film’s $3.65-million debut is that best ever for RLJ, and for IFC in general, beating Late Night with the Devil’s $2.8-million opening in March last year.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com