Weekend projections: Tron: Ares debuts with disappointing $33.5 million

Tron: Ares will open with around $33.5 million, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection. That’s about 10% short of the $37.2 million our model predicted on Friday, indicating relatively poor word-of-mouth, particularly outside its core fan base. The last outing for the franchise was Tron: Legacy in 2010, which opened with $44 million—roughly equivalent to $63 million in today’s dollars. These disappointing numbers continue a poor run for new releases over the past few weeks.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Roofman is a slightly bright spark this weekend, opening a little over $1 million more than expected. Although $8 million isn’t a huge win, it does confirm Channing Tatum as a box office draw, and his work, along with Kirsten Dunst’s performance, are deservedly drawing praise. Could that lead to good legs? Possibly, although we’re not seeing that happen for other well-reviewed films that appeal to a similar demographic recently. Cases in point are One Battle After Another and The Smashing Machine, both of which will almost certainly get some Oscar nominations (with One Battle After Another a strong favorite for a Best Picture nom). In its third weekend, One Battle… will earn just $6.675 million according to Warner Bros., taking it to $54.5 million in total. Hitting $100 million seems a very distant prospect. The Smashing Machine, meanwhile, will drop about 69% in its second weekend, and has yet to earn $10 million. The under-performance of those films is harming the market about as much as the relatively modest start for Tron.

To continue to the slightly downbeat theme, Soul on Fire is doing fine for Sony, but is well short of what our model thought was possible. Its $3 million debut from 1,720 theaters is comparative riches compared to the $1 million being earned by Kiss of the Spider Woman, which is pulling just $750 per theater, less than The Long Walk on its fifth weekend. Roadside Attractions can’t call in the kind of favors with the theaters that a major studio can for a movie they want to promote going into awards season, and this looks like a movie that will fade from view fairly quickly.

The one really bright spark this weekend is the debut of After the Hunt, which is landing just over $150,000 from six theaters for Amazon MGM Studios. It is set to expand next weekend, and has a good base to build on.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com