Weekend projections: Wicked and Gladiator hit big

Wicked and Gladiator II are both delivering stellar opening weekends as moviegoers return to theaters in droves for the first time since early September. Wicked will easily take the crown this weekend, with a monumental opening that Universal projects will hit $114 million. Gladiator’s $55.5 million is the best for a movie to open in second place since Oppenheimer famously did so in July last year.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Wicked’s opening obliterates the record for the best opening weekend for a movie based on a stage musical. Into the Woods held that record with $31.1 million, not far ahead of Mamma Mia’s $27.7 million, which itself was just a fraction better than Les Misérables’ $27.3 million. These films can have exceptionally long legs—both Mamma Mia and Les Mis finished with over five times their opening weekend, and Into the Woods over four—and Thanksgiving weekend will only help Wicked. Where it will finally land is hard to say, but clearly a multiplier of four is on the cards, which would land it around $450 million by the end of its run, and give it a good shot at being the number three movie of the year.

Other records Universal is claiming this weekend include the best global opening for a musical, with Wicked’s $164.2 million topping Les Misérables’ $103 million, and, significantly, the best opening weekend for a non-sequel film in 2024. The only musicals to beat it on the global stage are all Disney sequels and remakes, led by 2019’s The Lion King, which clocked in with $446 million worldwide on debut.

Wicked is certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 90% critics score and an 97% audience score and is earning an A CinemaScore, per the studio. The audience skews female, with 72% girls and women. 67% of the crowd is 25 or older, but there’s a significant young adult presence, with 50% of moviegoers between the ages of 18 and 34. The demographics break down 54% Caucasian, 21% Hispanic, 13% African-American, 8% Asian, and 5% Native American and other.

Top international territories are the United Kingdom, $17.56 million; Australia, $6.7 million; Korea, $4.7 million; Mexico, $4.0 million; and Brazil, $1.8 million.

The demographics for Gladiator aren’t quite a mirror image of Wicked’s, but they come close. The historical epic is drawing an audience that is 61% male, and half the audience is under 35. It has a solid 4 out of 5 stars on PostTrak and a B CinemaScore. With $50.5 million internationally this weekend (a shade higher than Wicked’s $50.2 million), the film is looking to a more global audience. After two weekends, it has $23.1 million in the United Kingdom, $17.7 million in France, $11.9 million in Spain, and $10.1 million in Mexico.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com