Weekend projections: Wicked: For Good soars to $150-million domestic debut

Wicked: For Good will storm to $150 million this weekend, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. That should give it the second-best weekend of 2025, behind A Minecraft Movie’s $162.8 million, although it’s not yet completely guaranteed to exceed Lilo & Stitch’s $146 million over Memorial Day weekend. With Thanksgiving coming up, Wicked Part 2 will have long legs almost by default, and looks like a good bet to end 2025 as the top-grossing movie of the year.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Although Wicked is coming in somewhat below our Friday-morning prediction of $176 million, it’s still performing 30% better than Wicked: Part One did domestically, and up 13% internationally, with the studio projecting $76 million overseas for a $226-million global debut. That technically makes the film more skewed towards the domestic market than the first outing, but Universal won’t be too concerned about that, given that this opening points towards a global total somewhere around $950 million. Being a sequel, it will probably be a little front-loaded, and hitting $1 billion globally is probably out of reach.

Reviews for this outing are a little more mixed than the first film, but a 95% audience score, and A CinemaScore says that moviegoers feel they’re getting their money’s worth. Its opening marks the highest-ever debut for a Broadway adaptation, Universal’s second-largest domestic opening after Jurassic World, and the biggest pre-Thanksgiving opening outside of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Among musicals, it will rank third all time, trailing only The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast.

Our model predicts it will end the Thanksgiving holiday with just over $300 million domestically, and end the year with somewhere between $400 million and $450 million. With decent legs, it stands an excellent chance of being the top-grossing movie during the calendar year, although it’s much too early to call that particular race (particularly with Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash both in the running).

Internationally, the United Kingdom and Ireland led with a blockbuster $24.4 million—80% of the territory’s box office and delivering multiple records for a live-action musical and a PG-rated release. Australia followed with $8.6 million, becoming the territory’s biggest live-action musical debut ever, while Germany collected $4.1 million to lead its market. Korea delivered $3.8 million, aided by strong IMAX results, and Mexico brought in $3.7 million for the country’s second-biggest stage musical opening.

Other markets also showed strong outcomes. The Philippines recorded $2.7 million, Universal’s best debut there since 2018, while Brazil opened to $2.5 million to set a new all-time record for a stage musical. Spain and the Netherlands each earned over $2 million, dominating their local charts, while France and Italy posted $2.0 million and $1.9 million debuts, respectively. Across the Middle East, Wicked: For Good generated $1.5 million, matching or exceeding the performance of its predecessor.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com