Weekend predictions: Avatar settles in for the long haul

With no new wide releases this weekend, Avatar: Fire and Ash will remain top dog at the box office as it settles in for a long run. Our model has it topping $300 million domestically by the end of the weekend. Zootopia 2 should land second as it continues its strong Holiday run.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

Our weekend predictions come with an asterisk with the complications of this being not quite a Holiday weekend and little comparative data for the model to work with. It think it’s probably over-estimating the number for Zootopia, although there’s no doubting it’s performed exceptionally well through the Christmas break, and should land in second place.

Places three to eight are much more up for grabs, with Marty Supreme my personal pick for number three, but the model favoring The Housemaid.

Overall, we seem certain to start out 2026 with earnings well ahead of the same time last year. Whether we continue that winning run for long comes down to the performance of Avatar over the next few weeks. Topping $40 million this weekend is a good marker of how it’s doing now the Holiday rush is dying down.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com