‘F1’ Brad Pitt Movie Eyes $115M Global Bow, ‘M3GAN 2.0’ $20M U.S.: Box Office

When it comes to Apple Original Films sixth wide theatrical motion picture release, F1, you may want to get out of the way.

Sources tell us that the Warner Bros. released Brad Pitt PG-13 movie, has stateside pre-sales that have been heating up, gassed up from 88% certified fresh Rotten Tomatoes reviews. Currently, we hear that U.S./Canada presales for F1 are ahead of Gladiator 2 ($55M), way ahead of Pitt’s Bullet Train ($30M) and 4x that of pre-Covid 2019’s Ford v. Ferrari ($31.4M). While overseas, given the popularity of the sport, the movie was always intended to make bank for this $200M production from Top Gun: Maverick director Joseph Kosinski with $75M+, F1 looks to pick up speed in the states. Sources tell us that a $40M-$50M+ opening is par for the course at 3,800 theaters stateside. This despite the fact that box office tracking firm NRG took their estimate down to around $38M. Currently, there’s a lot of Imax sales in North American for Thursday and Friday.

Should F1 overperform, not only is it a plus for the racing car genre, which has had a wonky time historically at the box office, but it will be a big breakthrough for Apple Original Films which has largely struggled in its wide theatrical release stateside following its very big budget theatrical, the disastrous Argylle ($96.2M WW), the retrenched Pitt and George Clooney noir Wolfs and Killers of the Flower Moon ($158.7M domestic off a $200M production cost). F1 could provide a lot of hope, and turn a new page for the streamer as it flirts with the big screen.

Warners has a hold on Imax screens for two weeks on F1. The movie will also play in Dolby Cinema, PLFs, motion seats, Drive-Ins and Dine-Ins.

Racing movies have had a wonky time at the box office, and that’s why there are far and few in between. Universal‘s Formula One movie, Rush starring Chris Hemsworth, Olivia Wilde and Daniel Bruhl and directed by Ron Howard in 2013, crashed stateside with $26.9M, 28% of its near $97M global box office. It was a little dark and moody in hindsight.

James Mangold’s Ford v. Ferrari did better with a $31.4M opening, $117.6M domestic, $226.2M global take, four Oscar noms including Best Picture and two wins for editing and sound editing. Looking back, Tom Cruise’s Days of Thunder in 1990 was iconic, but only made $82.6M domestic, $157.9M WW (unadjusted for inflation); the 12th highest grossing movie for that year, but no where near the highs of Top Gun or Mission: Impossible movies. Going deep, Six Pack starring Kenny Rogers at the height of the country singer’s fame only made $20.2M uninflated back in the day (making it the 46th highest grossing movie back in 1982). However, F1 is very different, a fire-breathing, sassy Pitt, Imax speaker blaring, floor rupturing popcorn movie. Hot fun in the summertime.

In what is a 100% of the international footprint, F1 is opening in 78 markets starting with France, Italy, UK, Korea and more opening today. Among majors, Germany, Brazil and Mexico join the fray on Thursday. Then comes Spain, China and Japan, notably, along with several others. Look for the Euro majors, Australia, Japan and the Middle East to get into the driver’s seat as the biggest markets for Formula One in general.

The promo campaign has been in full drive abroad with stops in Montreal, Mexico City, Abu Dhabi, and London including at Formula One racetracks and events. Tom Cruise turned up at the red carpet in London to support Pitt and his Top Gun 2 director Kosinski.

Warner Bros worked closely with Apple Original Films on all aspects of marketing and distribution. Sources tell me that when it came to studios bidding on F1, they had to get some skin in the game. I understand that Warner Bros. chipped in for 50% of the P&A. Both Apple and Warners recoup the P&A together before the Burbank, CA lot gets a distribution fee around 12%.

Warners held around 200 Imax screenings on Monday for fans, with more previews starting Thursday at 3PM. Men over 25 is the best demo in first choice for F1, higher than Pitt’s Bullet Train. Unaided awareness is best with dudes overall and higher than Bullet Train and Ford v. Ferrari.

Universal Pictures will release the PG-13 genre sequel M3GAN 2.0 in 3,000+ North American theaters with an opening that’s over/under $20M. Presales we hear aren’t strong, 25% of what Evil Dead Rise was before its $24.5M opening and half of Smile 2 ($23.2M). The first movie post New Years 2022, in the wake of a Christmas filled with Avatar: The Way of Water, opened to a great $30.4M hot off a marketing campaign consisting of dancing Megans which became a TikTok sensation. The original director and writer of the first film, Gerard Johnstone, is back. The first M3GAN minted $95.1M domestic, $180M worldwide for a net near $79M profit off a $12M production cost. Tracking is led by younger women between the ages of 17-34. Expectations are lower this time around. The Blumhouse Atomic Monster movie will also open in 79 international markets including UK & Ireland, Mexico and Brazil. Previews start Thursday at 2PM.