‘Transformers One’ Opening to $26M

SATURDAY AM: Paramount and Hasbro Entertainment’s Transformers One, despite an A CinemaScore/5 stars & 92% PostTrak positive, isn’t as robust as anticipated with a $26.3M opening, though still solid for a fall animated movie. That’s because it’s more boys than fanboys.

Holding strong is Warner Bros’ third weekend of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice at $25M, -51%. The numbers say everything in terms of the staying power of that Tim Burton-directed Jenna Ortega, Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder movie. As we told you yesterday, by Sunday, the sequel is gonna pass the domestic of Shang-Chi ($224.5M). Some magic tricks working in Beetlejuice 2‘s favor is its hold on evening PLFs. Despite the near dead heat that some are spotting at this minute, the notion is that matinees will put Transformers One over the top.

Not wowing are Lionsgate’s Halle Berry $20M genre movie Never Let Go with $1.6M yesterday (including previews) and a $3.8M to $4.7M opening, and unfortunately Mubi’s Demi Moore The Substance isn’t body-swapping to higher single digits, stuck in its projections of $2.65M-$3M opening. And you can’t knock Mubi for trying in their first big swing with a wide release. More on that in a bit. CinemaScore audiences like Substance better than Never Let Go, B to C+. PostTrak audiences as well, 75% to 62%.

The entire weekend for all films is coming in at around $82M, which is still considerably richer than the same frame a year ago when the actors’ strike cratered the marketplace, this weekend +57%. Realize this — the weekend is missing around $10M-$12M per sources due to Apple’s decision to ratchet down the George Clooney-Brad Pitt comedy noir Wolfs from a wide release to a limited one (~50 theaters). That was the last figure left on long-lead tracking, and realize that’s at a time when the studio hadn’t fired up their campaign yet (Sony was handling the theatrical release in a two-pic deal with Fly Me to the Moon). Despite 73% reviews coming out of the Venice Film Festival, Apple didn’t want the lackluster box office headlines for the movie after stumbling with Argyle and Fly Me to the Moon. Exhibition, and the industry overall, would love to have Apple in the mix on marquees. However, natch, the production costs of these movies have to come down, and fare needs to be tailored for a big screen theatrical audience, not for viewers watching movies on their iPhones. While some sources tell me that these big budget movies are merely advertising costs for Apple TV+, as we told you back when Argyle fell apart, don’t think that these tech/streaming companies don’t look at bottom lines.

Lionsgate’s tire fire continues following the bombing of Borderlands, The Crow and last weekend’s lowest Dave Bautista opening, The Killer’s Game, with Never Let Go. And there’s another dud next weekend in the studio’s handling of Francis Ford Coppola’s $120M epic Megalopolis, bound for a $5M opening (however, the studio isn’t on the hook for marketing on that one, and they’re walking away with at least a $3M-$5M distribution fee, I’m told, even if the Adam Driver, Shia LaBeouf, Aubrey Plaza movie tanks). Gosh, what’s going on here, Lionsgate? And please don’t scream profit. Even though the studio can pencil out a breakeven or make a buck in the downstream off these low budget movies, the misfiring of movies does no favors for the overall exhibition industry, and it certainly doesn’t help the future quotes of stars who take the stage at CinemaCon and go on press tours. Also, what message, Lionsgate, are you sending to filmmakers? Why make a movie at Lionsgate if they’re going to be efficient in their P&A spend? I’m told that their foreign sales on The Killer’s Game exceeded the pic’s production cost of $30M (which doesn’t happen often — typically foreign sales cover 60% to 70% of a movie’s budget), hence they saved their hide on not ramping up P&A costs to make more in the downstream margins. If you’re going to step up to the plate and go theatrical, then point your bat to the far-end of the stands and swing. No singles or grounders. Also, these bombs don’t help the future legacy of the library. Many remark to me about the strain which Lionsgate’s marketing department must be under in these back-to-back wide releases.

In addition, when it comes to these Lionsgate theatrical failures, you can’t fault a stagnant domestic box office: The stateside marketplace before the start of summer was dragging -20% behind 2023. Now, we’re only -12% behind. Breathe in the smelling salts, Lionsgate, and realize that a little Dennis Quaid movie for middle America, Reagan, is bound to gross $30M from little distributor Showbiz Direct. That’s more than Borderlands ($15.4M), The Crow ($9.2M), and Killer’s Game (now $4.8M). Audiences are ready to get off their couches.

I’m told that this avalanche of Lionsgate blah hitting theaters now is from the prior Joe Drake administration at the studio. “I’ve never seen a studio bomb to this extent, one after another,” cried a rival studio executive to me yesterday. Taking a walk down memory lane, one of the last times that a major studio was on a bad streak was Columbia Pictures back in the late ’80s under CEO David Puttnam who Deadline’s Peter Bart (then Variety Boss) called “arguably the most eccentric studio reign in the annals of Hollywood.” Puttnam pumped out such bombs as the Griffin Dunne talking penis movie Me & Him ($78K), the Cyndi Lauper-Jeff Goldblum movie Vibes ($1.8M) and The New Adventures of Pippi Longstocking ($3.5M). Fair enough, it’s a darker time for Lionsgate, but if you got the goods, go with it, and go big. In the same breath, light candles and say prayers for Megalopolis next weekend, currently panned on Rotten Tomatoes at 51%.

Never Let Go pulled in males with close to half the audience being over 35. Diversity demos were 39% Caucasian, 27% Black, 23% Latino or Hispanic and 7% Asian. The Alexandre Aja-directed genre movie is playing lightly in the South, South Central and West with the AMC Southlake Pavillion in Atlanta the pic’s best multiplex in the nation with just under $5K so far.

As for The Substance, the good news is that the audiences seeing this movie, do enjoy it, evident in its exits, even though it’s 2 hours and 21 minutes long. Also, Mubi is giving an awards push for Moore. The reason why Never Let Go is coming in higher is because they had national TV spend vs. Mubi’s largely digital push. Realize that when Universal first greenlit this movie, the intention was to fully back an edgy genre film that was part of the studio’s diverse slate that was a comeback movie for Moore. However, I hear the movie’s French filmmaker Coralie Fargeat (who cleverly shot Paris for LA with tax credits) was very resistant to making edits, wanting to hold true to the film’s feminist social impact message. I’m told The Substance wasn’t entirely a genre movie for her. Universal allowed Fargeat to shop the $17.5M movie, and Mubi scooped up global on it for $12.5M, and took it to Cannes where the movie received a 13-minute standing ovation.

However, I also hear Fargeat was very particular about the movie’s marketing campaign and had a big say. You’ll notice that Moore’s face isn’t splashed widely around in one-sheets and in billboards, with esoteric symbols from the film: eggs, chicken, a leotard and Moore’s stitched back. This doesn’t help sell the movie. Hopefully, word of mouth will get this to a great multiple. That said, Moore worked overtime to make up for this shortfall, appearing on a string of late-night shows, and pumping the pic to her 14.5M followers on social media per RelishMix.

Mostly men showed up at 59% with the biggest demo being 25-34 at 38% and 36% of the audience over 35 (interesting how younger-skewing this Moore movie is, and male, however, it’s an R-rated genre pic). Diversity demos are 55% Caucasian, 22% Latino and Hispanic, 11% Asian and 9% Black. Most of the business is on the coasts for The Substance with AMC Burbank the movie’s highest grossing location currently with $17K.

The Substance is on a 45-day theatrical window, I understand, and no doubt it will be a prolific add to the foreign auteur heavy Mubi streaming service.

Saturday AM numbers:

FRIDAY MIDDAY: Well, this wasn’t expected, however, it’s still early in the weekend. Transformers One is currently pacing lower than expected for a $26M opening off a $9.7M first day (inclusive of $3.36M previews) at 3,978 theaters. Clearly the Josh Cooley directed Paramount Hasbro Entertainment movie is skewing family, and the question remains whether more come out tomorrow. Ditto for any walk-up business from Hispanic and Latino audiences who gave the animated pic high scores last night of 93%; the demo repping 33% of the pic’s business, one digit behind Caucasians. Note, there’s only 5% K-12 schools off today.

Warner Bros.’ third week of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice isn’t far behind with a third weekend of $24.75M, -52%, at 4,172 locations after a $6.75M Friday. The running total is bound for $225.6M by Sunday which will make it the second highest grossing September theatrical release ever at the domestic box office behind 2017’s It at $328.8M and ahead of Disney/Marvel studio’s 2021 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $224.5M. It’s arguably the highest grossing movie for Jenna Ortega in a story role at the domestic B.O. not counting her supporting part as the Vice President’s daughter in Iron Man 3 ($409M).

Third goes to Blumhouse/Universal’s second weekend of Speak No Evil with $5.7M, -50%, after a second Friday of $1.7M and a ten-day total of $21.2M by Sunday.

Fourth might be Lionsgate’s $20M Halle Berry horror film Never Let Go at 2,667 theaters with $1.45M today and between $3M to $4.25M for the weekend. The added advantage that this movie has over Mubi’s Demi Moore-Margaret Qualley body swap genre pic The Substance is that they ran TV spots, vs. the latter’s largely digital campaign, which means it reaches the middle of the country. But at this opening, that’s not saying much.

Fifth is the ninth frame of Disney/Marvel Studio’s Deadpool & Wolverine at 2,450 with $1M today, $4M (-23%) for the weekend, and a running total of $627.4M. By Sunday, the movie will be pacing 1% behind Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2 at the same point in time, that pic with a domestic total of $652.6M.

The Substance is eyeing $1.75M today, including previews, for a $3.3M-$3.5M opening at 1,949 locations. The pic, I hear, had an under $10M P&A spend, largely digital.

FRIDAY AM: The first animated Transformers movie in close to four decades, Transformers One, from Paramount and Hasbro Entertainment grossed $3.36M from Wednesday fan shows (7 p.m.) and Thursday previews (5 p.m.).

That figure beats out a slew of family movie previews including that of Paramount’s IF ($1.75M), The Garfield Movie ($2.3M), Trolls Band Together and even the live-action spinoff Transformers movie Bumblebee, which did $2.15M in 2018.

Transformers One opens today on 3,978 domestic screens, including Imax and PLF, and the expectation was a start around $34M. Don’t be shocked if this hits $40M or more. Screen Engine/PostTrak exit polls are strong with 5 out of 5 stars and a 75% definite recommend. The Thursday night audience was made up of 72% general audience, 13% parents (mostly dads at 56%) and 15% kids under 12 (mostly boys at 73%). Transformers One cost $75M before P&A.

The industry does need a new theatrical distributor, and Mubi is making a splash with its acquisition of Universal/Working Title’s The Substance, which minted $512K in previews comprising Wednesday 7 p.m. showtimes in 785 theaters and another $327K in previews from 1,455 theaters Thursday night from 4 p.m. showtimes. The Substance is booked at 1,949 theaters and was projected at a $3M start. It could do more, especially with reviews at 88% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and audience scores of 83%, PostTrak of 80% and 4 stars, for the 2-hour, 21-minute body-swap genre movie starring Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley. The Substance cost $17.5M when it was at Universal. Mubi bought worldwide on the movie for what Iknow hear is $12.5M. Thursday night’s audience was 62% male, with 64% between 18-34.

Remember how Lionsgate had a dud last weekend in The Killer’s Game, which wound up being the lowest opening of Dave Bautista’s solo box office career? That movie did $300K previews last Thursday before posting a $2.68M 3-day (and $3.8M for the week). It looks like the Halle Berry horror film Never Let Go also is headed for the doldrums with $360K previews. The studio believes it has a $4M-$7M opening at 2,667 theaters. Not if you comp it to The Killer’s Game. Do note that before the weekend begins, Berry has the power to guarantee a certain sized opening: Now very-defunct little distributor Aviron saved her movie Kidnap and opened it to $10M in August 2017, which the industry commended at the time. The movie ended its run at close to $31M stateside. Never Let Go, from The Crawl filmmaker Alexandra Aja, was made for $20M, I understand. Reviews are at 56% Rotten. PostTrak on Thursday night was 3 stars and 67%. Yikes. Mostly men attended at 58%, with 18-34 audience at 42%.

Meanwhile, Warner Bros. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice has crossed the two-century mark with $200.8M after a $2.48M Thursday (-14% from Wednesday) for a second week of $64.4M, -53%, at 4,575 theaters.

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Blumhouse/Universal’s Speak No Evil wraps Week 1 with $15.6M after a $791K Thursday, -12%, at 3,375 theaters.

Disney/Marvel Studio’s Deadpool & Wolverine ends Week 8 with $7.1M at 3,075 after a $420K Thursday, -6% from Wednesday and a running cume of $622.8M.

Am I Racist?, the Matt Walsh documentary from The Daily Wire, ends Week 1 with $6.3M at 1,517 theaters after a $405K Thursday, +8% from Wednesday.

Showbiz Direct’s Reagan rages on with a $24.8M domestic cume and a Thursday of $315K, and third week of $4.5M at 2,450 theaters.