Weekend predictions: Beetlejuice and Transformers go head to head

Transformers One goes into the weekend as the favorite to break Beetlejuice Beetlejuice’s winning streak at the top of the chart. But victory isn’t completely assured, with our model thinking both films have a shot at victory.

To kick off, here’s the model’s baseline prediction for Transformers One, based on everything we knew until we got the preview number this morning.

While the Transformers franchise has had its ups and downs in recent years, it’s still been a reliable producer of $100-million-plus earners at the domestic box office. This entry in the canon is the first animated feature, which means expectations are a little lower than usual, particularly for opening weekend.

The model seems to have more-or-less nailed the opening weekend number based on the previews…

Although the model and the previews line up, there’s still a question of how this film will hold up over the weekend. Franchises this old tend to be quite front-loaded, but this is a new spin-off rather than the continuation of an existing story. $40 million seems like a good bet.

Next up, Never Let Go is looking to find a foothold in a crowded horror market…

The model was fairly bullish on its prospects, but previews don’t look promising…

The model’s final prediction is boosted a little because it expected the film to do better. That might be a little too optimistic in this case, given the competition the film has. I suspect it will struggle to hit $4 million.

Part of the reason for Never Let Go facing an uphill battle this weekend is another horror movie:

The Substance is the widest release so far for distributor MUBI, which is one of the reasons the film has a lower baseline prediction (newer distributors tend to take a while to figure out all the details of making their films successful in theaters).

It has, however, made a good start…

Our previews prediction is complicated a little by the fact that The Substance had previews on both Wednesday and Thursday. We use the Thursday earnings to create the preview prediction, although that arguably is a little harsh on the film.

The bottom line is that the model thinks Never Let Go will just come out ahead of The Substance. I personally think The Substance will prevail. We’ll find out who’s right over the next couple of days.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Overall, this looks like Transformers One’s weekend, but Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could put off a surprise win if Transformers fades badly through the weekend.

I suspect Speak No Evil will be hurt a little more by the new competition from Never Let Go and The Substance, and it could well fall to fifth place on the chart. But it could be a close race between the three horror movies for second place.

If everything performs at or around expectations, we will have a welcome $100-million weekend in theaters—not bad for this time of year.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com