Weekend predictions: Demon Slayer set to break anime records

After a monster opening for The Conjuring: Last Rites last weekend, this weekend will belong to Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, with the anime sensation set to post the biggest opening ever for the genre by a huge margin. $11.4 million in previews already gives it one of the best starts for an animated film from any country, ahead of the likes of Minions: The Rise of Gru, which posted $10.75 million in previews back in 2022. The big unanswered question is how much Demon Slayer will manage for the weekend. That’s still fairly hard to predict, but our model has some pointers…

The Demon Slayer franchise is already a box office behemoth, with the previous movie, Mugen Train arguably holding the current record for best domestic weekend for an anime film ($21.1 million), depending on whether one includes Pokemon in the anime category. Mugen Train likewise has the highest domestic total for an anime movie, at $50.3 million.

Leading into the weekend, we were already seeing much higher demand than that for Infinity Castle…

Thursday’s preview numbers confirm the potential for an opening between $65 million and $70 million.

It’s worth noting that Sony reported to us that the $11.4 million in previews came from Thursday previews starting at 4pm. Other outlets are reporting that the figure includes earnings from the Tuesday fan event. Given we honestly don’t know what precisely the $11.4 million refers to, we have to temper expectations for the weekend a little, but $60 million certainly seems like a good bet, and the film will almost certainly have the record from an anime film by the close of business on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is appealing to a different demographic, and looks as though it is accepting third place on the chart with a stiff upper lip.

Tracking leading up to its release looked jolly good by the standards of the franchise…

Previews look even stronger on paper, but are slightly skewed by $1 million in earnings for special screenings on Wednesday. Taking that into account, this still looks like a highly respectable start…

Given that this is a franchise with a well-established fan base, and that this is, we are assured, the final outing for the Crawleys, the weekend results could be skewed towards Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. So $20 million feels like a slightly high prediction to me. Landing over $15 million seems like a good bet, and it is a film that could have good legs.

Next up is The Long Walk, which seems likelier to have competition from Demon Slayer than Downton Abbey, but has a good pedigree, with Francis Lawrence directing the film, based on a book by Stephen King.

It looks as though it is more-or-less hitting its mark, based on Thursday previews…

Alas, this film probably isn’t getting the buzz it deserves, given its good reviews. Ironically, it will need good legs to turn a profit.

Finally, we turn from the fictional nobility of Downton Abbey to the actual nobility of rock legends Spinal Tap, who are returning for a encore performance 41 years on from their cinematic debut.

No previews were announced for Spinal Tap II: The End Continues, so we’ll have to stick with a fairly speculative prediction of $3.2 million for opening weekend. The model thinks it will end with around $7 million, but I’m willing to say it will go to 11.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

By popular demand, we’re adding the top 10 total from the equivalent weekend last year, to give you a sense of how the market is looking. The good news is that we’re up by 73% based on that metric, and 26% compared to last weekend.

That’s all down to Demon Slayer, which will set new box office benchmarks this weekend. The Conjuring: Last Rites will probably take a fairly steep dive from its opening weekend, but likely to land in second place..

One remaining wildcard is Toy Story. The model thinks it could do much better than $2 million, but we haven’t seen the kind of advance ticket sales to support a prediction higher than that. We do seem to have five new wide releases that aren’t heavily competing with one another though, so it could yet surprise with a number that takes it closer to the top five.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com