Weekend predictions: Sinners looking to hold on at top as multiple new releases mount serious challenges

Sinners is the clear favorite to win at the box office this weekend, but The Accountant 2 and Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith are both mounting strong challenges, and A Minecraft Movie is still doing good business. Our model is predicting a fairly close race at the top, but there’s reason to believe Sinners will turn out to be a fairly comfortable winner.

Here’s a run-down of our model’s predictions for each of the new movies…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

A decline of 38% from opening weekend would be a spectacular result for Sinners, but its day-by-day holds through the week have been so strong that it probably is on the low end of possibilities. There’s a good chance the film will hit $35 million in its second weekend, and our model is thinking that a final total over $200 million is looking increasingly likely.

There is quite a bit of competition this weekend, though. The Accountant 2 and Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith look like the two films that could challenge for top spot, and we should see an impressively robust top four this weekend. How much each film will reduce the audience for the others remains to be seen.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com