Weekend predictions: Taylor Swift set to have biggest party in theaters this weekend

There’s really only one party in theaters this weekend, with Taylor Swift | The Official Release Party of a Showgirl set to dominate at the box office. This won’t be quite the cultural moment that The Eras Tour was in 2023, but it’s fair to say no other musical star or act could generate the kind of business we’re expecting to see this weekend. The Smashing Machine could land in second place, but awards hopefuls will mostly be taking a back seat for the next three days.

We have frustratingly little information on Showgirl from AMC, which hasn’t published even an official theater count. Our prediction is therefore based on rumored advance ticket sales and an assumption that this new film won’t play in quite as many theaters as Swift’s concert film…

Our $38-million prediction is more of an industry consensus than based on the kind of hard data we’d love to be getting at this point. It is a good benchmark for what to expect though, although it’s worth mentioning that anything over $10 million is a triumph for this kind of film. Taylor Swift is really in a class of her own.

Our model thought The Smashing Machine should open North of $10 million, and has the potential to run and run, based on advanced buzz and good reviews…

Its preview numbers aren’t that bad, but they aren’t great either…

Dramas tend not to generate a lot of preview ticket sales, so it’s much too early to write this one off. The model is unimpressed, however, and is now pointing to a sub-$10 million opening, which would be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, Avatar: The Way of Water is fishing for more dollars in anticipation of the release of Fire and Ash at the end of the year. Preview numbers are in…

Re-releases don’t commonly report preview numbers, so the model doesn’t have a lot to go on here, but somewhere between $2 million and $3 million sounds about right. The original Avatar opened to a very solid $10.5 million back in 2022, ahead of the release of Way of Water, but that was a more special circumstance. It would be a big surprise if this Avatar outing did similar business.

Finally, IFC will be rolling out horror movie Good Boy…

This is a movie that got a lot of online buzz from a clever trailer, but doesn’t seem to have taken flight since. A place in the top ten seems possible, but it could struggle to reach that level.

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

The biggest surprise among our predictions is probably One Battle After Another, which the model expects to have a very normal 56% drop from its opening weekend. The expected word of mouth for the film just isn’t evident yet, but maybe it’ll show up this weekend? Competition with The Smashing Machine is probably the biggest issue.

Also worth mentioning are three other wide releases this weekend: Casper is getting a re-release in 1,100 theaters; Bone Lake pours into 1,038 locations; and Anemone is looking to make a splash from 865 movie houses. The last of these, a drama starring Daniel Day-Lewis, directed by his son Ronan Day-Lewis, has the most potential to break out, but is getting mixed reviews. It still stands a chance of hitting the top 10, though, according to the model. Bone Lake is a longer shot, but could also sneak onto the chart.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com