Weekend predictions: Tron gifts Black Phone 2 a win on weak weekend

Black Phone 2 will top the chart at the box office this weekend, not because of a particularly great opening, but more due to the weak performance of Tron: Ares, which is likely to struggle to top $10 million in its second outing. New releases look likely to earn over $30 million between them, which means we could yet squeak out a market win over last weekend and this weekend last year, when Smile 2 opened with $23 million.

This is another weekend with a lot of new releases, so we’ll only have time for a quick overview of our model’s predictions…

First up, Black Phone, which the model anticipated would make about the same on its first weekend as the original Black Phone from 2022…

The previews more-or-less confirm that number.

An opening over $20 million would clearly be fine for Black Phone 2 (after all, the original opened with $23 million and spawned this sequel). The key question is how well it will perform over the long run. It is getting good reviews, so could have word of mouth on its side. It’ll need a lot of that to come close to the original’s $90-million total.

The model was fairly bullish about the prospects for Good Fortune a few weeks ago, but the weakness of the market put a sizable dent in its prediction going into the weekend…

Preview numbers aren’t great, unfortunately.

This is a case where the model latches on to a modest preview number and assumes a film won’t have momentum through the weekend. Good Fortune could be on exception to that rule, thanks to good reviews and the fact that comedies can have quite high multipliers. My gut feeling is that Good Fortune should do better than $6.7 million this weekend, but as always we go with the model, not my instincts.

Next up, Truth & Treason. As usual for a film from Angel Studios, we don’t have any preview numbers, so our prediction is based solely on our pre-weekend baseline…

Finally, After the Hunt expands wide this weekend…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

If Tron had posted an opening somewhere close to its potential last weekend, we’d probably be looking at a close race for box office glory. Instead, Black Phone 2 will win more-or-less by default. The four other films likely to land in the top 10 will add another $15 million or so to the pot, and we could see an increase in total market size if something out-performs expectations. A combined total of not much over $60 million from the top 10 is a disappointment however you look at it, though.

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com