Weekend projections: Beetlejuice has edge over Transformers

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice looks set to retain its box office crown this weekend as Transformers One turns in a weak performance on debut. Never Let Go is the winner among new horror releases, but a surprisingly strong hold for Speak No Evil means it will sneak into third place on the overall chart.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Most films are falling short of our model’s prediction this weekend, which is a reflection of the weakness of the market this time of year. The standout performers are all returning films that appeal to demographics that are arguably under-served by Hollywood. Speak No Evil is a psychological horror movie, a genre that has been doing well this year (Longlegs, which bagged $74 million a few months ago, also falls into that category). Am I Racist? and Reagan appeal to a politically-engaged audience that doesn’t get to see many documentaries and biopics that fit their sensibilities on the big screen. All three films have well-timed releases, with fewer Summer blockbusters currently booking up screens in multiplexes.

Transformers One also had plenty of space in theaters this weekend, but is posting disappointing figures. Its preview numbers suggested it should at least have hit $30 million this weekend, but it looks as though there’s little crossover appeal from Transformers franchise fans to the broader market. That poor opening will almost certainly let Beetlejuice Beetlejuice win the weekend again, even though it’s actually having a relatively poor weekend compared to its first two.

Overall, after looking on Friday like we might have a unseasonably strong weekend in theaters, Sunday’s numbers bring everything back down to Earth. The good news is that the $80 million or so that we’ll bring in this weekend is up considerably from the $52 million earned this weekend last year.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com