Weekend projections: Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 holds strong through weekend with $63-million chart-topping debut

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is enjoying a relatively strong hold through the weekend, and will top the box office chart with about $63 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. While its Thursday-to-weekend multiple is on the low side, at 8.75, that figure is notably better than the 7.77 multiple for the original Five Nights at Freddy’s, which converted $10.3 million in previews into an $80-million weekend.

Here are the official studio projections for the three-day weekend (click the image for a full chart of all films reporting so far):

Overall, the numbers are coming in roughly where the model expected them to. Its “misses” cancel each other out, with Zootopia 2 earning $6.3 million more than predicted and Wicked: For Good earning $6.65 million less. That latter number is a strong signal the the Wicked sequel was heavily front-loaded, and our model now projects it will earn $378 million in total domestically, substantially less than the first film, and only 2.6 times its opening weekend, in spite of being perfectly timed for the Holidays. The model still sees quite a lot of uncertainty for Zootopia 2, but is projecting $350 million right now.

Internationally, Five Nights 2 will earn about $46 million this weekend. In Mexico, the movie opened as the clear top choice, with $6.9 million on 2,635 screens, securing the second-biggest horror opening of the year and ranking as both Universal’s and Blumhouse’s second-largest horror launch in the market, behind only the first Five Nights at Freddy’s. The UK and Ireland also delivered a robust start with $4.4 million from 850 screens, placing second behind Zootopia 2, while its opening day marked one of the strongest post-pandemic Fridays for horror and pushed Universal to a record horror opening weekend in the territory, edging past the original FNAF.

Elsewhere, the sequel showed similar momentum. Brazil generated $3.2 million from 1,334 screens and opened at number one, delivering a result just shy of its predecessor but comfortably ahead of other recent genre titles, while also setting Universal’s biggest December opening and its second-largest horror launch ever in the country. Spain contributed $2.9 million from 514 screens, outperforming the first film and achieving one of the year’s top horror openings as well as Blumhouse’s strongest local debut excluding previews; in Australia, a $2.4 million bow on 279 screens secured the number two slot and placed the film among the top horror launches of the year and one of Blumhouse’s and Universal’s biggest horror openings historically in that market.

Domestically, as expected, FNAF 2 skews young demographically, with 77% of the audience under 25, compared to 81% for the first film. 55% of that audience is male, compared to 58% last time.

Elsewhere on the chart, Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is landing right in line with our Friday prediction, at $10.2 million. Kill Bill: The Whole Bloody Affair will arrive with $3.25 million and, as predicted, land in the middle of the top 10. The most notable Awards-hopeful this weekend is Hamnet, which successfully expanded into 744 theaters, and will pick up $2.3 million this weekend.

Overall, buoyed by Five Nights’ excellent start, the market sits 18% of the same weekend last year, and the myth that a movie can’t open on the weekend after Thanksgiving is hopefully officially busted. The previous best opening for this particular weekend, by the way, was The Last Samurai’s $24.3 million way back in 2003.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com