Weekend projections: Moana and Wicked stay top as 10 new releases hit top 20

Disney reckons Moana 2 will hit $300 million at the domestic box office this weekend, with its $52-million projected weekend the best ever for a film in the weekend after Thanksgiving. With another $300 million internationally, the animated sensation already has $600 million globally. Wicked and Gladiator II stay in second and third spot this weekend, and Red One stays fourth. Below that, no less than 10 new releases appear in the top 20 this weekend as almost every non-major-studio distributor tries to take advantage of the last fairly clear window before the end of the year.

Here’s how the weekend numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Moana 2 has already surpassed the domestic gross of Moana, and our model new predicts it will finish its domestic run with $439 million. With Wicked predicted to finish with $419 million, those two films are looking great bets for finishing as the number 3 and 4 films of the year. With the Holidays likely to help them both, something close to, or over, $450 million is on the cards for each of them.

Moana 2’s international performance continues to be spectacular, with Disney projecting it will earn $103.7 million this weekend from 52 “material territories.” The leading locations so far are France, with $32.5 million; the United Kingdom, $27.2 million; Germany, $19.7 million; Mexico, $19.1 million; and Brazil, $16.0 million.

Wicked is now the biggest non-sequel of the year, with over $400 million worldwide. It is performing most strongly domestically, with $135 million international compared to $320.5 million domestic. Its best markets are the United Kingdom, with an outstanding $47.4 million; Australia, $17.2 million; Korea, $10.6 million; Mexico, $8.1 million; and Spain, $4.5 million.

The rest of the top 10 (and, indeed, the remainder of the top 20) is packed with new releases. Two standouts are Bollywood actioner Pushpa: The Rule—Part 2, which won’t hit the $7 million our model predicted on Friday, but will enjoy a fifth-place debut with $4.9 million. The re-release of Interstellar in IMAX theaters is a big hit, with over $4.4 million predicted for the weekend.

In the face of all this competition, some of the independent films arriving this weekend are coming it a bit behind expectations, and generally the model was over-optimistic to the tune of around 15–20%. Slightly more normal service will be resumed next weekend with the debuts of Kraven the Hunter and The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim. In general, though, we’re in for a jam-packed few weeks in theaters. It’s fair to say there’s plenty for everyone to choose from.

– Studio weekend projections

– All-time top-grossing movies in North America

– All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com